UBS expects Tesla to miss vehicle delivery consensus by 1%
12/30/2024 10:44 AM
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to report its fourth quarter 2024 vehicle delivery report later this week. Amidst these expectations, UBS analyst Joseph Spak has shared his estimates for the electric vehicle maker's Q4 2024 results.
UBS expectations:
- Spak expects Tesla to report vehicle deliveries of 510,000 units for the fourth quarter.
- This would suggest a 5% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter increase in vehicle deliveries.
- These numbers, however, are 1% below the analyst consensus of 512,000 units, as noted in a Markets Insider report.
- The UBS analyst noted that despite the potential miss, Tesla's Q4 2024 deliveries might not be as meaningful as in the past since the company's narrative has shifted to artificial intelligence.
- Joseph Spak maintains a "Sell" rating and a $226 per share price target on Tesla stock.
Other analyst expectations:
- Barclays analysts seem a bit more optimistic about Tesla's fourth quarter deliveries.
- The Barclays analysts expect Tesla to deliver around 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter.
- Similar to Spak, the Barclays analysts also noted that the importance of Q4 2024's raw vehicle delivery figures is not as high as in the past.
- "Investors overwhelmingly agree that the importance of this Q4 volume print is relatively lower than normal," the Barclays analysts noted.
Tesla's company-compiled consensus:
- According to Tesla’s company-compiled consensus, analysts anticipate that the electric vehicle manufacturer will report 506,763 vehicle deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2024.
- The projections include 476,398 deliveries for Model 3 and Model Y, and 31,755 deliveries for all other models.
- These figures suggest that Tesla will report a total of 1,801,709 vehicle deliveries worldwide for 2024.
- For comparison, Tesla delivered 1,808,581 vehicles globally in 2023.
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