The break's been and gone. Time for NASCAR teams to buckle up for the long grind

04/22/2025 03:09 PM

Well, what do you want to talk about?

The season’s one and only NASCAR Cup Series off-weekend came and went in the blink of an eye. It's now hammer down for 28 straight weeks until a champion will be crowned in the Phoenix desert on Nov. 2. There is so much racing that will take place between now and then. So, perhaps that is where we head in our conversation.

Cup Series teams have contested nine races to date and have visited every type of racetrack other than a street course. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have been the leaders. To the surprise of no-one, right? Hendrick Motorsports has three wins from the teams of William Byron and Kyle Larson. Byron has also led the point standings since the third race of the year (Circuit of the Americas).

Byron and Larson are going to win plenty more. The unknown is whether they can get to the Championship 4 and deliver another title for Rick Hendrick. The organization last experienced that accomplishment in 2021, and frankly, it's surprising neither of these drivers has won one over the last few seasons.

Gibbs, meanwhile, has won five Cup Series races with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin. Bell is a star, and it's been well documented, including through this platform, how his team continues to get better year over year.

When it comes to Hamlin, the only conversation that routinely gets brought up is his lack of a title. Maybe the 20th year will be the charm.

The other winner was Josh Berry for the Wood Brothers. It's been up and down since that race in Las Vegas, but by now, you should be used to seeing Berry and the No. 21 car as a front runner. And there have been weekends, proven by the loop data, where the team has run better (per average running position) than its finish, so don't be tricked by the numbers.

A reminder of the championship point standings coming out of the off-weekend:

1. William Byron: 1 win, six top-10 finishes, 354 laps led
2. Denny Hamlin: 2 wins, six top-10 finishes, 308 laps led
3. Christopher Bell: 3 wins, six top-10 finishes, 139 laps led
4. Kyle Larson: 2 wins, six top-10 finishes, 503 laps led
5. Chase Elliott: 0 wins, five top-10 finishes, 44 laps led
6. Ryan Blaney: 0 wins, 4 top-10 finishes, 197 laps led
7. Tyler Reddick: 0 wins, four top-10 finishes, 85 laps led
8. Bubba Wallace: 0 wins, three top-10 finishes, 98 laps led
9. Joey Logano: 0 wins, 1 top-10 finish, 260 laps led
10. Alex Bowman: 0 wins, five top-10 finishes, 107 laps led

Here is a good place to focus on some individual drivers, such as Logano. No, the defending champion has not won a race yet this year, but Logano and his team are doing good things and they should be given far more attention than perhaps some want to give because of an inability to let go of the fact that Logano won the 2024 championship when he was not, quote unquote, the ‘best’ driver.

In the early weeks of the season, Logano had led more laps than anyone in the series. He has one top-10 finish, but what has helped the team is that they excel in stage points. Everyone should be well aware that in 2025, stage points matter, and Logano has proven that.

Here is the stage point leaders through nine races:

1. Ryan Blaney: 92
2. William Byron: 90
3. Bubba Wallace: 78
4. Kyle Larson: 72
5. Joey Logano: 70
6. Alex Bowman: 66
7. Denny Hamlin: 61
8. Austin Cindric: 57
9. Tyler Reddick: 52
10. Chase Elliott: 49

Team Penske again looks like it will be scratching and clawing for every bit of success through the year. We've seen it before, and we've seen how at the end of the season, when the postseason arrives, they are in position to mount a challenge. Logano and Ryan Blaney have been in a position to win but have not. Cindric is also doing well in the stage point game. That shows they are running up front during the races.

For good measure, here are the drivers with stage wins:

• Kyle Larson: 4
• William Byron: 3
• Joey Logano: 2
• Denny Hamlin: 2
• Ryan Blaney: 2
• Josh Berry: 1
• Bubba Wallace: 1
• Ryan Preece: 1
• Christopher Bell: 1
• Austin Cindric: 1

Talladega Superspeedway is next, which means tearing equipment up and drivers being unhappy with tearing that equipment up. You can expect the Ford drivers to be fast. You can expect the Toyota and Chevrolet drivers to be there at the end of the day to steal the win. You can also expect a slow pace because of fuel-saving.

And really, that is what to expect as the year goes on. It seems clear who the contenders are, and it's the same folks year after year. The top organizations are always going to be the top organizations. But even if you take Hendrick, Gibbs, and Penske as the frontrunners, there are some intriguing things to watch.

RFK Racing has two drivers capable of winning races: Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece. The other team, however, has work to do. Brad Keselowski and his team have shown moments of success. Overall, they are behind, and the hole isn't getting any easier to climb out of, sitting 31st in the standings.
The fascinating thing is this: Keselowski understands the format and is far less panicked and concerned than those on the outside looking in. The former series champion believes in his team, but it's a matter of results. Furthermore, he knows it's about getting hot when it matters with such a long year, and as it pertains to the format, he has spoken about the value of running well at the end of the year versus the beginning.

23XI Racing is on the fringe. Tyler Reddick was a championship contender a year ago, and some tracks suit his team and their speed more than others, and it’s there where they need to capitalize. Bubba Wallace, meanwhile, is making a play at being a contender. The team has established itself as capable of running inside the top 10 and scoring stage points. Now, it's about winning, and winning consistently.

In other words, some things will remain the same at the front of the field, but there are plenty of challenges that stand in the way. And we haven't even talked about how it can all change in the final 10 weeks of the season to produce a driver or two or four who will compete for the championship that weren't expected.

It's a long way until we get there. A very long 28-week stretch that will test many in the industry physically and mentally. So, buckle up, because here we go.