Moment of truth: Australian weekend set to address uncertainties of Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes

03/13/2025 03:12 PM

Here we go. The Australian Grand Prix will provide answers to the unresolved questions from the Bahrain tests, especially those concerning the top teams. For McLaren, all eyes are on the remaining margins of a car widely regarded as the favorite, while the heat will put the new Mercedes to the test. Melbourne will also offer valuable insights into Ferrari’s initial setup difficulties, in an examination similar to the one Red Bull will undergo.

McLaren
The paddock unanimously considers the reigning champions as favorites for the season opener. The question is how much of its potential the MCL39 has already shown and what room for improvement remains. This question is twofold, concerning both the aggressiveness of engine mappings, fuel loads, and setups used in testing, as well as the overall development curve of the project. McLaren has appeared more ready than its competitors, with a solid setup foundation. Further gains could come from updates, which Andrea Stella has promised to introduce in the early races of the season, possibly as soon as the opening round.

The MCL39 is an extreme car in many respects, raising questions about whether its bold design choices might lead to reliability issues and other complications. The front suspension, for example, has raised concerns among rivals, including Red Bull's Pierre Waché, and will need to prove that it does not overly limit agility over curbs or compromise balance adjustments. Attention in Melbourne will also be on the rear of the new car, as some instability observed in Bahrain has led to questions about whether it was an isolated incident or a fundamental trait that could worsen in the Australian heat.

Ferrari
Many rank the Scuderia as the third or fourth strongest team, a prediction that clashes with the optimism and confidence seen in Ferrari’s camp. Technical director Loic Serra has stated that the tests confirmed a match between the data and simulation predictions, with the SF-25 also responding as expected to setup trials. After all, pre-season testing is primarily meant to conduct experiments that help refine simulation models, which in turn are used to perfect the car's setup.

Australia will provide the first real answers regarding the balance issues seen in Bahrain, with the hope that they were just early-stage flaws in a still-maturing project. The car's front-end precision will be an asset in Albert Park's quick direction changes, but the SF-25 must also ensure greater stability when getting back on the throttle. Finally, all eyes will be on Lewis Hamilton, eager to gauge how close he is to the limits of the Ferrari, especially under braking.

Mercedes
For Brackley, one of the main objectives of the 2025 project was to achieve greater rear-end stability and address the chronic overheating of the rear tires, which often ran at imbalanced temperatures compared to the fronts. The Australian circuit will be less demanding on the rear axle than Bahrain, but the hot weather will provide a serious test for the W16. Forecasts predict temperatures exceeding 30°C, compared to barely 20°C during testing, giving the Silver Arrows a valuable proving ground.

Finding a wider operating window would guarantee greater performance consistency throughout the season, a key factor that could make the difference between occasional podium finishes and a genuine title challenge. Another crucial test will be in slow, consecutive corners, a major weakness of last year's car. In Melbourne, attention will be on turns 3-4 as well as the winding final sector of the track.

Red Bull
During testing, the Milton Keynes team noted progress with the RB21 compared to its predecessor, though still not enough, according to Max Verstappen. The 2025 Formula 1 car continues to struggle over curbs and exhibits unpredictable handling, with sudden balance shifts from one corner to the next and even within the same turn at times.

Albert Park presents an interesting mix of high-, medium-, and low-speed corners, making it a meaningful test for balance. The rain expected on Sunday could be a great ally for Max Verstappen, potentially masking the car's weaknesses, which is why the difficulty of their build-up to qualifying will be an even more telling factor.

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