F1 driver standings: Who can win the 2024 championship?

09/16/2024 07:30 PM

The last time the motorsport world saw a nail-biting finish to a Formula One championship was in 2021, when Max Verstappen overtook Lewis Hamilton on the final lap of the controversial season finale to claim the drivers’ title.

While it’s not down to the wire, the 2024 is serving up some exciting races, and finally, more parity with seven different winners so far.

The statistics aren’t as tight now, but with Red Bull Racing’s dominance in the early races of the year diminishing, and other teams improving, the racing has been exciting and dramatic – and, with seven rounds to go, which will include seven races and three sprint races, the championship is certainly not won and done.

As it stands, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen leads the way by 59 points over McLaren youngster Lando Norris. Ferrari is also in the fight with Charles Leclerc on 235 points in third.

Verstappen started the season strong, winning seven out of 10 races. However, the Red Bull’s pace began to fall away in Austria, with signs of weakness appearing earlier in Imola and Monaco.

As the Red Bulls began to struggle, McLaren, Ferrari and even Mercedes-AMG have gone from strength to strength.

So far in 2024, McLaren has claimed four victories, while Ferrari and Mercedes have scored three each. Compared to this time last year, Red Bull had won every race but one, which was Singapore, where Carlos Sainz claimed the top step for Ferrari.

With Red Bull Racing struggling, McLaren now leading the constructors’ championship, and the standings growing even tighter, does Max still have it in the bag?

Here’s a deeper dive into the title contenders and what’s possible.

F1 Driver Standings

F1 Constructor Standings

Can Max Verstappen win?

To recap, Verstappen is currently on 313 points, leading the way for 2024. He’s won seven Grands Prix, but hasn’t had a victory since Spain, which was Round 10 in June. Since then, he’s averaged fourth place.

Verstappen’s lead of 59 points is decent, but Lando Norris is hot on his tail.

There are countless scenarios that could see the Dutchman race to his fourth world championship, but to put it simply, he needs to score no more than eight points fewer than Norris each weekend, averaged over the rest of the season, including Grands Prix and sprint races.

Can Lando Norris win?

Lando has claimed two victories this season, and sits second in the championship on 254 points. It won’t be the easiest task, but mathematically, he’s still in the mix.

If Norris wins every remaining Grand Prix and sprint race – while also scoring the fastest lap in every Grand Prix, earning him an extra point each time – he will end the season tied on points with Verstappen, even if the Dutchman finishes second in every points-scoring event.

In that scenario, Norris would win the championship – McLaren’s first driver’s title since Lewis Hamilton in 2008 – as he would have won more Grands Prix.

A DNF for Verstappen would vastly improve Norris’ chances, just as a DNF for the McLaren driver would make winning his maiden title much harder.

Can Charles Leclerc win?

Never say never. There are some scripts that could see Leclerc take his first F1 title, but these are some far-fetched scenarios.

Leclerc has been on the top step twice this year, and currently sits on 235 points in this position.

To win the title, Leclerc would need to gain an average of 12 points per weekend on Verstappen, and an average of three points on Norris.

It means that if Norris failed to finish every points-scoring event remaining in 2024, and Verstappen placed third in each remaining Grand Prix – and second in sprint races – Leclerc would need to win every Grand Prix and sprint race, including fastest laps to end the season two points ahead.

In other words, it’s a tall order.

Can Oscar Piastri win?

Oscar has won two races in 2024, and currently sits in fourth with 222 points.

If Leclerc’s chances of winning the championship are slim, Piastri’s – by virtue of a lower points total after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix – are even slimmer.

We’re clutching at straws, but for Piastri to win the title, on average he would need to outscore Verstappen by 13 points, Norris by five points and Leclerc by two points each weekend.

Even then, he would only tie Verstappen for points, and win the title for having notched up more Grand Prix victories.

Given 13 points is the difference between first and fourth positions in a Grand Prix – excluding the fastest lap – Piastri’s championship hopes in 2024 are very low.

Do you think any of these scenarios are possible? Who would you like to see the 2024 F1 season end?

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