Opinion: Aussies will buy the cars they want, not the ones you tell them to

Yesterday at 12:00 AM

The new year is here, and as of January 1, the NVES emissions laws we've been waiting for are finally in effect.

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) is now in force, which means car manufacturers must meet certain emissions targets or face hefty fines. 

There is a grace period until July 1 before the fines are actually handed out, but that aside, Australia will now have rules in place where it has never done so before.

Without wanting to get too political here, Australia has been accused – and continues to be – for many years of lagging behind other developed nations in not setting restrictions on emissions or even sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles.

RELATED: Australian new-car sales in 2024

And the latest one has come from the insurance comparison site, Compare the Market.

It says: "Despite the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), the Federal Government hasn’t set a date to phase out the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles, with only emissions reduction targets set until 2029".

While I accept that's true, and we should be looking ahead rather than just waiting to see how this all goes, the next bit from Compare the Market has me scratching my head a little.

In its most recent survey, it says it polled more than 3000 people across Australia, the US and Canada to "find out consumers' preferences and determine the most suitable new car models for each country" – using fuel efficiency, safety, body type and price as the main metrics.

“There are more than 50 brands and 370 individual models currently on sale in Australia to choose from – with even more on the horizon,” the insurance firm said in a media release.

“But with so many choices available, which models are the right fit for motorists?”

And the results were… interesting. 

Looking just at Australia’s results from the 1005 Aussies surveyed, top of the list is the Toyota Corolla Cross (8902 sold YTD), followed by the BYD Atto 3 (5751), as well as other surprise candidates such as the Nissan Qashqai (6560), Kia Seltos (7777) and Mazda CX-30 (12,672).

While undoubtedly the vehicles on the 'Best new cars for Australians' top 10 list do tick the boxes for having low fuel economy, top ANCAP safety ratings, and being mostly SUVs – our favourite form of car in 2024 – it also seems like they've missed one key thing.

These are not the cars Aussies want to buy right now (huge caveat here – en masse).

So far in 2024, of the 1.2 million new cars delivered to the end of December, the top 10 were made up of mostly mid-sized SUVs and dual-cab utes.

In fact, there has been very little movement all year in terms of the most popular cars – with sales led by the Toyota RAV4 medium SUV (58,718 sold YTD), and the Ford Ranger (62,593), Toyota HiLux (53,499) and Isuzu D-Max (30,194) utes.

Around half of the models offered some form of hybrid power (check out our December VFACTS article for more detailed results), but none were fully-electric only – despite 91,292 being sold in 2024.

The limited movement in the top 10 sales all year included the Corolla leaving and the new-generation Prado entering in its place. Australians still love a Corolla, but everyone has lost their minds with excitement over the new Prado so it's not at all unexpected.

Aussies also swapped the related Hyundai Tucson for the Kia Sportage and ditched the Tesla Model Y for the Ford Everest.

But according to Compare the Market (CTM), only three of the best cars we should be buying are medium SUVs – the BYD Atto 3, Tesla Model Y and Toyota RAV4 – and none are utes.

It also claims that of 1005 Australians asked – only 4 per cent preferred utes.

In reality, in 2024 22 per cent of sales were of utes (with big numbers always coming from fleets), while 57 per cent were of an SUV of some size according to official VFACTS numbers.

And 2024 was in fact a record year for the Nissan Patrol large off-road SUV (826 sales in December and 8293 for the year) – which uses a 5.6-litre V8 engine.

CTM's analysis meanwhile showed 42 per cent of people want an SUV.

I don't own a ute personally, and it wouldn't be my first choice of vehicle, yet I am overwhelmingly left with this feeling that telling people what they should buy is not going to make them buy it. They have to want to and it has to fit their needs.

And that's not even coming from a place of being averse to electric cars – or any of the vehicles on this list for that matter. I have driven a large number of them through my work now, and some are good and some aren't so much in my experience.

But suggesting these are the cars people should be buying, claiming that it's based on what Australians actually want while only a small number were asked and we don't know what their backgrounds were (most new car sales come from fleets, while we have to assume here CTM interviewed only private buyers) feels unrealistic.

And the purpose of the survey feels muddled too: "to determine the most suitable new car models" – suitable for what? Towing? Off-roading? Large families? 

While this list is admirable in terms of recommending vehicles that would help bring down Australia's emissions total with the introduction of the NVES, it feels extremely unlikely that even with the introduction of the NVES I will be sitting here in 12 months’ time looking at the new-car sales figures list in this form.

Let me be wrong.

In fairness, the survey has considered price preference too – though not detailed exactly what questions were asked – presumably factoring in that the NVES is set to indirectly affect the cost of higher-emitting models such as utes and large SUVs in the future.

As of right now, sales of new electric vehicles in Australia are down, mostly led by a 25.8 per cent slump in Tesla deliveries in the second half of the year, but that is the reality all the same. Sales of hybrids meanwhile are up 76 per cent – so perhaps in 2025 that's where we will see the most change.

Is the NVES the catalyst we as buyers need to change our minds? Or is it that the manufacturers need to bring us more electrified examples of the cars we like to buy?

On the horizon, Ford's Ranger PHEV (plug-in hybrid) is due to arrive locally in 2025, and Toyota has confirmed the 2026 HiLux will be available with an electric variant in selected markets, with a chance for Australia.

To me, this list feels like somehow it's too forward-reaching, while also having harked back to 10 years ago when our favourite cars were Corollas, Camrys and Mazda 3s.

In 2014, the Toyota Corolla was the best-selling car with 43,735 sold, with the Mazda 3 a close second with 43,313, and the Toyota HiLux third with 38,126.

Do we need to realign ourselves with the (mostly) smaller vehicles we drove in the past? Or do car makers need to meet us where we are at now? Food for thought. Let us know yours in the comments.

Maybe we just need to take surveys with a huge pinch of salt.

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