2024 F1 Baku GP: Ferrari fast but too cautious loses to an impressive Oscar Piastri

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At the Baku City Circuit, McLaren took its revenge on Scuderia Ferrari, with Oscar Piastri delivering a performance rivaling Charles Leclerc's race in the Italian Grand Prix at the Monza circuit for the title of best performance of the 2024 Formula 1 championship. The suspicion is that in Azerbaijan, the Ferrari SF-24 was the car to beat, but the British team snatched a victory through a cynical and aggressive approach that had been lacking in Italy. The team led by Andrea Stella is now leading a Constructors' Championship that is decisively heading towards Woking based on what we are seeing in this period.

Oscar Piastri's attack
The race seemed one-sided in the early laps, with Charles Leclerc defending pole position at the start, slowly building a 6-second lead over Oscar Piastri's McLaren. In the opening stint, both Ferrari cars impressed in the first sector, with better management of the medium tires prone to overheating and thermal degradation, especially on the rear axle. Just before the pit stop, however, performance began to drop, with Charles Leclerc's lap times increasing by 2 seconds over four laps. Correctly, Ferrari waited for McLaren's pit stop before reacting, but during that very lap, the Ferrari suffered a sudden tire collapse, with an abrupt 1.2-second spike on the clock.

Upon re-entering the track, the Monegasque driver found himself managing a smaller lead than before. Ferrari opted for a gentle introduction of the hard tire, destined to complete 35 laps. In the battle with the McLaren driver, Charles Leclerc lost six-tenths in the second and third sectors of the out-lap. Ferrari's caution continued, with Charles Leclerc lapping half a second slower than the pace he would later sustain for the rest of the stint, losing another eight-tenths to the Australian. This opened an otherwise unlikely opportunity for the McLaren driver, who executed a deep-braking maneuver that surprised Charles Leclerc, who didn't defend the inside line. The result was one of the best overtakes of the year, earning Oscar Piastri the lead.

Once he secured first position, Oscar Piastri set an extremely aggressive pace, half a second faster than those behind him who had just pitted, surprising even Charles Leclerc. Except for Mercedes, none of the top teams tested the hard tire on Friday, but McLaren had the fresh data from Lando Norris, who had started on the hards. Encouraged by the data, the Woking pit wall allowed Oscar Piastri to push fully. Conversely, Ferrari expected to manage the race more, explaining Charles Leclerc's great caution in the laps immediately following the stop.

The Monegasque driver tried everything but never managed to overcome the McLaren. The papaya-colored cars were among the slowest on the straights in the qualifying session, so they did not benefit from a lower-drag setup compared to their rivals. Instead, Baku’s long straight made overtaking difficult due to the reduced effect of both DRS and slipstream with the lower-drag wings. Charles Leclerc's main difficulty, however, was staying close to the opponent despite the dirty air. This disturbance likely caused the Monegasque to feel less grip with the hard tires compared to the mediums in the first stint when he was running in clean air.

The fact that for nearly 30 laps Ferrari remained within DRS range of McLaren suggests that the SF-24 was the most competitive car in Baku, balancing speed and tire management—a potential, however, that couldn't fully emerge. If Charles had stayed in the lead, he would have won with a certain margin, as the McLaren driver admitted at the end of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Disturbed by the Australian's slipstream, Charles Leclerc repeatedly slid, punishing his rear tires in an attempt to find the decisive traction. In the end, the Monegasque was forced to give up, with the Australian celebrating a superb victory, skillfully shutting every door and never making a mistake despite the long-lasting pressure.

The importance of track position

In the final laps, Charles Leclerc finds himself switching from attacker to defender, with his tires now worn out. In better condition is Sergio Perez, who for about ten laps had slowed his pace by half a second per lap, distancing himself from the dirty air and allowing his tires to breathe. A strategy Charles Leclerc couldn't adopt, as it would have exposed him to an attack from the Red Bull behind him. Meanwhile, Carlos Sainz also climbs back, recovering the 9-second gap he had after his pit stop.

The Spaniard’s pace doesn't confirm Ferrari's superiority in Baku but shows that the aggressive pace set by Oscar Piastri wasn't the best for race time management. This is also proven by George Russell, who in the final laps lapped between seven-tenths and one second faster than the leading trio. McLaren's winning strategy, therefore, was to focus entirely on gaining the lead as soon as possible, sacrificing tire management and prioritizing track position. This approach, in other Grands Prix as well, has made the difference between first and second place.

Change at the top
McLaren is now leading the Constructors’ standings and remains the number one favorite for the championship. Ferrari's 51-point deficit is mathematically recoverable, though the concerns are more about performance. The Maranello team was absolutely convincing in Baku and is now heading to Singapore, another theoretically favorable track. However, from Austin onwards, Scuderia Ferrari will need to prove it has solved its bouncing issues and has found competitiveness in longer, wider corners with higher speeds, areas where there are still no certainties.

Red Bull will obviously also be part of the race. The final incident with Carlos Sainz doesn't erase Sergio Perez's excellent performance, as he was in a long battle with the Ferrari cars and the leading McLaren. However, the Baku city circuit is a track that masks the RB20's balance issues, which still remain unresolved. This time, it's Max Verstappen who's the struggling driver of the pair, while Sergio Perez again proves his affinity with the Azerbaijan circuit. Beyond the usual problems, the world champion complains about the lack of bite in the brakes, shifting attention to the preparation of his RB20. During the race, Max Verstappen also kept emphasizing Red Bull's difficulty in dealing with the roughness of the asphalt, despite the stabilizing effect of the fuel weight. This problem is set to worsen even more in a week at the Marina Bay street circuit in the Singapore Grand Prix.

George Russell's fortunate podium certainly lifts the mood at Mercedes. In Baku, the Silver Arrows suffer from the chronic problem of rear tire overheating, an issue recurring since the start of the season and in Brackley's recent cars in general. The radio messages to Lewis Hamilton, urging him to keep rear tire temperatures under control, were telling. The situation improved once the hard tires, less prone to overheating, were fitted, allowing George Russell to set a good pace at the end. “Tires, tires, tires,” was the Englishman’s refrain at the end of the race, setting the agenda for what needs to be addressed to return to fighting at the top soon.

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