2025 F1 season preview: McLaren favorite, Ferrari challenger, with Red Bull as wild card

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The countdown has begun. Next week, Formula 1 will gather at the O2 Arena in London for the launch of the 2025 season, an event that will coincide with the celebrations for the 75th anniversary of the World Championship. Immediately afterward, teams will have to pack up and ship their equipment for the three days of testing scheduled in Bahrain from February 26 to 28. From there—keeping up with the frantic pace—teams will return to their headquarters for a few days before heading to Melbourne.

It’s time for predictions—expectations that aren’t limited to fans alone. Even within the paddock, these are days when some insiders dare to make forecasts based on more or less reliable information.

The competitive order at the end of the 2024 season makes it difficult to predict who, at least in the early part of the season, might have an edge. However, it is much easier to outline the goals that each team has set for itself as the new season approaches.

At least three teams will be strongly targeting the drivers’ title, two of which see winning the constructors’ championship as an absolute must. All have solid foundations to believe in these goals, but their ambitions will be tested on the track. Let's take a closer look at the top five teams from the 2024 constructors’ standings.

McLaren
– Drivers’ championship goal: 1st
– Constructors’ championship goal: 1st

There is no Plan B. In 2024, McLaren celebrated a world title after sixteen years, ending a twenty-six-season drought in the teams’ standings. Just three months after the last championship ended, the only objective can be securing both world titles again.

There are two major questions for the upcoming season: Lando Norris’ mental resilience (in 2024, he showed some limitations when facing a head-to-head battle with Verstappen) and Oscar Piastri’s progress, as he is expected to deliver performances on par with his teammate. Even the bookmakers agree—McLaren and Norris start the season as favorites for both world titles, though with only a slight edge over their direct rivals.

Ferrari
– Drivers’ championship goal: 1st
– Constructors’ championship goal: 1st

Finishing just fourteen points behind McLaren last season leaves no doubt about Ferrari’s goal in the 2025 constructors’ championship. Expectations for the drivers’ title are also high, given that Leclerc scored the most points of anyone in the last quarter of the 2024 season (coinciding with the final upgrades introduced at the Austin weekend). Adding to this, the arrival of Lewis Hamilton has electrified the atmosphere within the Scuderia.

Winning either of the two titles would still be a significant achievement, with the constructors’ title being a non-negotiable target. But for both Leclerc and Hamilton, the drivers’ championship is not an overly optimistic goal. They are well aware that 2025 begins with far more certainties than they will have twelve months from now—an opportunity that must not be wasted.

It will be a tough battle, no doubt, but Ferrari has the tools to fight at the highest level. Besides Hamilton's arrival, the team has also completed the technical staff overhaul led by Frederic Vasseur, starting with new technical director Loic Serra. The team that the French team principal has at his disposal in 2025 is the result of a recruitment campaign that began in 2023 and concluded at the end of last year. This is his Ferrari.

Red Bull
– Drivers’ championship goal: 1st
– Constructors’ championship goal: Top-3

After celebrating his fourth world title, Max Verstappen has disappeared from the radar. During the short winter break, the Dutchman was almost ignored by the media (something he surely appreciated), as they focused on Hamilton's first steps at Maranello and crowned Norris as the early favorite for 2025.

Without Adrian Newey, with a shaky end to the 2024 season, and with an internal reshuffling of roles that relied only on in-house talent, Red Bull does not appear to be a strong candidate for a leading role. But is that really the case? Can Verstappen be ruled out of the title fight? Speaking with several insiders, no one is willing to count Max out. Of course, much will depend on the technical competitiveness of his car, but we are still talking about a team that has dominated the ground-effect era. Max Verstappen will start with the goal of winning—there is no other way. However, the outlook for the constructors’ championship is different and will largely depend on how Liam Lawson integrates into the team. The days when Max alone was enough to secure the constructors’ title are over.

Mercedes
– Drivers’ championship goal: Top-3
– Constructors’ championship goal: Top-3

A mystery. It has been for years, but in 2024, Mercedes sent out some interesting signals, proving to be a winning car (in certain conditions, particularly in very low temperatures) and even showing some margin for improvement. However, the F1 World Championship is not a winter tournament—remaining competitive in all conditions and on every track is essential, and that is Brackley's primary objective.

George Russell is a solid pillar, while Andrea Kimi Antonelli is a well-founded gamble who will need time to adapt before delivering the results Toto Wolff firmly believes in. Among insiders, Mercedes is not seen as a contender for the two world titles, but the 2025 season could mark a step forward with more race wins. All of this is in preparation for 2026, a year when many expect the Silver Arrows to make a comeback.

Aston Martin
– Drivers’ championship goal: Top-10
– Constructors’ championship goal: Top-5

It may seem odd, but for Aston Martin, the real goal in 2025 is to maintain the positions achieved at the end of last season. Fifth place in the constructors’ championship and ninth place for Fernando Alonso in the drivers’ standings were secured thanks to a solid start to the season, which allowed the team to build an early advantage. In the second half of the championship, however, Aston Martin was outperformed by both Alpine and Haas, though neither managed to threaten Silverstone's fifth-place finish due to the gap accumulated earlier in the season.

While waiting for the Adrian Newey-designed car set to arrive in 2026, Aston Martin is heading into a transition year where the goal is to cling to the “best of the rest” status it secured at the end of last season. Hopes for a return to the top are all pinned on the 2026 season.

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