F1 Austin GP strategy analysis: strong SF24 race pace helps Ferrari perform perfect strategy

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Charles Leclerc’s performance in Austin was so incredible that there weren't enough adjectives to describe his masterpiece. We thought of many, but none seemed fitting. “Monstrous” came closest.

Before analyzing Charles Leclerc's race, let's recap the strategies seen during the 2024 United States GP, which was held yesterday at the 5.513-kilometre Circuit of The Americas in Austin. These strategies were more or less in line with our expectations. As mentioned yesterday before the race, Pirelli underestimated the effectiveness of the Medium tires, and despite very high temperatures during the race, with track surface reaching over 45°C, the C3 compound performed excellently across all cars. The driver who managed them the best, as expected, was Charles Leclerc.

Strategy recap
On a one-stop Medium-Hard strategy were Leclerc, Sainz, Verstappen, Norris, Piastri, Perez, Hulkenberg, Gasly, Alonso, Tsunoda, and Bottas. On a one-stop Hard-Medium strategy were Russell (who finished an impressive sixth despite starting from the pit lane), Lawson, Colapinto, and Stroll (the only one using used tires at the start).

On a two-stop Medium-Hard-Medium strategy was Magnussen. On a two-stop Medium-Medium-Hard strategy were Albon and Zhou, while Ocon was the only driver to make two stops with Medium-Hard-Soft tires. Hamilton was the only driver to retire (ending in the gravel on lap two).

A deceptively Austin race
At first glance, it might seem like a simple race, with only one stop, but it wasn't. As we wrote yesterday, long before the race, two stops seemed the safer option. It was believed that only a few teams, mainly Ferrari and Red Bull among the top teams, could manage to finish the GP with just one stop. However, something significant happened yesterday.

Norris started from pole at lights out, followed by Verstappen, Sainz, and Leclerc. Max had a good start, better than Lando's, and focusing on battling him, forced Norris to go wide in the first corner, gaining the position. However, Max was also forced off the ideal line, allowing Leclerc to take advantage and move from P4 to P1 in one swoop.

At Turn 2, the order was Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz (who benefited from Max and Lando's duel), Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri. Charles set the pace, and team radios, particularly from McLaren, were filled with immediate concern: "Will we make one or two stops?" the drivers asked. "Probably one," came the reply, aware of Ferrari's intentions (Vasseur had hinted at it in pre-race comments) to attempt a one-stop strategy. "That's crazy," responded the papaya drivers. The fact that the McLaren duo managed to make one stop with excellent times on the Mediums before pitting was due to their excellent management early in the stint. Norris and Piastri knew they had to manage well to extend their run, so they kept a high pace early on to remain competitive in the middle part of the race. This strategy could have even allowed Lando to reach the podium if not for his penalty at the end for a questionable overtake on Verstappen. It was a borderline situation, and Lando likely didn't even gain a real advantage from going off track. Max, however, was smarter.

Tire behavior: Although the temperatures were higher than on Saturday, the track (resurfaced for the 2024 Formula 1 edition) evolved significantly by Sunday, which may have allowed the drivers to complete the race with only one stop.

Charles Leclerc, an impressive race.
Here begins Leclerc's monstrous, incredible race. Charles managed to maintain an unapproachable pace for everyone on the Medium tires, much faster than Verstappen. By the time of his pit stop, he had a lead of around 11 seconds over the Dutchman. Leclerc won the race with two key moves: the start maneuver and the unstoppable pace he had in the first stint on the Mediums. No one was at his level. In the second stint, his pace on the Hard tires was less impressive, but it was enough to manage the race and secure the victory. Pirelli underestimated the C3 yellow compound, which turned out to be very consistent, especially in such high temperatures.

Carlos Sainz's pit stop was a genius move by Ferrari
Around lap 20, Ferrari had a brilliant intuition. Max Verstappen couldn't keep up with Leclerc's pace, but knowing he was on a one-stop strategy, he would still try to extend his stint as much as possible to stay in touch and avoid being vulnerable at the end. Ferrari read the situation well and, confident they could finish the race on one stop, called Carlos Sainz in, who at that moment was two seconds behind Max, to switch to Hard tires.

The move had a dual effect: if Max Verstappen followed Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc would immediately respond (his 9-second lead was a good cushion); if Max stayed out, Charles had enough margin to manage. The Dutchman stayed out, opting to race against Charles, who remained very competitive and extended his lead to 11 seconds over the Dutchman. Max stayed out until lap 26, just enough time for Sainz to bring the Hard tires up to temperature and build a gap of over 4 seconds over him, a gap that would only increase until the end of the GP. Ferrari had no rivals in Texas, and Charles Leclerc was a true predator.

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