F1 Las Vegas GP: Mercedes exceeds expectations, but Ferrari prepares for race assault
Today at 08:32 AM
Mercedes returns to pole position in the cold of Las Vegas, confirming that the W15 is a top-tier car, provided it hits the ideal operating window. However, for George Russell, the race still needs to be built, with Ferrari ready to capitalize on the best pace seen in practice. The opportunity is ripe for the Prancing Horse in the world championship race, aided by McLaren’s difficulties, which even sees them behind a Max Verstappen who recovered in the final moments.
The Brackley team exceeds all expectations. The Silver Arrows had already shown their potential in Friday’s practice, but there was fear that they could disappoint again in qualifying, when opponents increase their power and reduce fuel loads. Mercedes, however, proves to be the car to beat in a single-lap performance in Las Vegas, demonstrating once again how in modern Formula 1, temperatures and finding the ideal operating window make the difference. The W15 is a car that loves the cold, as suggested by the pole position in Canada, the one at Silverstone with the accompanying win, and the front row in Brazil in the pouring rain.
In the night of Las Vegas, with the track surface never exceeding 15°C, the Silver Arrows are the quickest to warm up their tires, making a difference at the beginning of the lap. George Russell outpaces Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen by three tenths in the first sector, while the gap to Charles Leclerc and the McLaren cars grows to half a second. In a qualifying session decided by less than a tenth of a second, the explicit request from the Englishman to go out last, thus benefiting from the best track evolution, also plays a role. However, George Russell’s pole position contrasts with Lewis Hamilton’s tenth place, whose double mistake in Q3 is the result of a trust issue that the champion has never found with the ground-effect Mercedes.
Alongside Russell will be Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz, the best among non-Mercedes drivers in the first sector. At the start of the lap, the Spaniard gains two tenths on Charles Leclerc, thanks to better tire preparation on the out-lap, as acknowledged by the Monegasque himself. Las Vegas represents the perfect storm for Ferrari, a car always more gentle on tires and therefore slower to warm them up. The cold is just one factor, added to the extremely smooth surface, which causes the tire to deform less on contact with the asphalt and generate less heat. The lack of fast corners and the low-downforce configuration further reduce the energy transferred to the tires, which, moreover, can cool down by over 40°C on the long straight of the Strip.
On the year’s worst track from this perspective, it is certainly a positive for Ferrari to be ahead of their direct rivals. The merit is also due to the availability of an extreme low-downforce rear wing, unlike the competition, as well as the good mechanical grip of the SF-24 on the curbs and in the slow corners of the second sector. The two Ferrari cars will start ahead of the McLarens and, based on what was seen in Friday’s simulations, they have the potential to challenge Pierre Gasly and George Russell in the long race.
Ferrari and Mercedes find themselves at opposite ends: the former more competitive in race pace, the latter extremely quick at warming up the tires. After free practice, their respective representatives spoke about the need to find a better compromise between qualifying and the race, adjusting pressures, camber angles, convergence, and suspension stiffness. So far, the choices favor Mercedes in single-lap performance, but the overall picture will only be clear at the end of the Grand Prix, and for now, Ferrari seems to be in the best position.
Once again, Max Verstappen recovers at the last minute, after three free practice sessions in serious trouble. The Dutchman’s difficulties do not stem from balance, as often happened in the middle part of the season. The problem for Red Bull also lies in warming up the tires, risking reliving the dramatic scenario from Singapore 2023. The world champions manage to get their tires up to temperature just in time, but the RB20 remains far from the top positions. Among the limitations, besides the difficulty in attacking the curbs, is the lack of a low-downforce rear wing. As in Monza, the Austrian team is forced to use the medium-downforce wing from Jeddah, a solution that is inefficient and will cause problems in close-race battles.
Max Verstappen still has the opportunity to seal the world championship, starting ahead of Lando Norris. Unlike Red Bull, McLaren can rely on a low-downforce wing. On Saturday, the team even decides to reduce the aerodynamics compared to the start of the weekend, using a rear wing that they hadn’t even used in Monza. However, this choice does not seem to bring any particular benefits, with McLaren even losing the advantage over Ferrari in the first sector, then struggling in the tight middle sector, lacking aerodynamic downforce. There remains the doubt that the Woking team has opted for a different mechanical setup, sacrificing tire warming on the single lap to improve graining management, in response to Lando Norris' strong dissatisfaction after Friday’s simulations. Only the race, however, will confirm or disprove this theory.
Alpine is the big surprise of the day, with Pierre Gasly achieving an extraordinary third place. There were no signs that Las Vegas would be a circuit suited to the Anglo-French car, nor that the A524 tends to perform better in cold conditions. The updates that arrived at the end of October, ending a six-month development freeze, are starting to bear fruit. Much of the credit for the result in Las Vegas goes to Pierre Gasly, but the second car, driven by Esteban Ocon, also stands out, narrowly missing out on a Q3 spot.
Alpine is now in the best position to defend an unexpected sixth place in the constructors’ standings. The first of their direct rivals is Yuki Tsunoda, seventh with a Racing Bulls car that arrived in Las Vegas with updates to the hood and rear aerodynamics. Haas, on the other hand, is disappointing. On paper, the low-downforce Nevada track should highlight the strengths of the VF-24, but at the moment it only managed to reach ninth place with Nico Hulkenberg.
Teams and drivers are now preparing for a race where graining tire wear will dominate, pushing everyone to conserve two sets of hard tires, the most resistant to the phenomenon, even though they haven’t been tested during the weekend. Safety cars and red flags are also around the corner, rewarding those who manage their tires best and delay their pit stops. In the land of betting, strategy is set to be a true gamble, promising a Grand Prix full of surprises.
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