F1 tire effect: how 5mm influenced outcome of Sao Paolo Grand Prix

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Few would have predicted Max Verstappen's remarkable climb from 17th on the grid to victory in the 2024 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix, marking his first win since June's Spanish Grand Prix. Verstappen's performance was a masterclass in resilience, and his triumph highlighted his adaptability and control in tricky conditions.

Following Max Verstappen's inspiring drive, Alpine celebrated an astonishing success, with Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly securing second and third places. The duo's performance delivered Alpine more points in a single race than they had managed to accumulate throughout the entire season so far. Their surprise success underscored the unpredictability of the race and brought a fresh, electric energy to the podium.

In stark contrast, top teams like McLaren and Ferrari found themselves outpaced, struggling to adapt to the wet conditions. Lando Norris, still a strong championship contender, battled persistent front-locking issues, which hampered his ability to mount a serious challenge. Meanwhile, Ferrari's Charles Leclerc wrestled with the handling of his SF-24, describing the experience as "pretty horrendous" and indicative of the car's struggles in inclement weather.

Ultimately, while the top three enjoyed a day of celebration, the Brazilian Grand Prix served as a reminder of the sport's unpredictable nature, as some of the season's strongest teams found themselves unable to keep up with the surprising frontrunners. The Monegasque driver stated after the Sao Paulo race that they had simply not been fast enough. He described the car as extremely difficult to drive, noting that it was very pointy, digital, and oversteery.

The strong results for Max Verstappen and the two Alpine drivers were certainly aided by the red flag, which allowed a convenient tire change. However, attributing their podium finishes to mere luck or a fortunate gamble would be unfair. Their speed and performance after the red flag restart demonstrated that their podium places were well-earned and a result of how their cars excelled in wet conditions.

It's well-established that some cars adapt better to rain than others, as multiple factors align to compensate for deficiencies typically exposed on a dry track. One clear advantage Alpine had was that wet conditions helped minimize one of its key weaknesses: engine power. Wet races demand careful throttle management, which levels the playing field and reduces the emphasis on outright power.

However, a more intriguing aspect influencing performance differences in the wet lies in the aerodynamic effects of wet-weather tires. Ground-effect cars are highly sensitive to ride height—downforce significantly increases as they get closer to the track surface. The intermediate tires, with a diameter about 5 millimeter larger than slicks (725 millimeters compared to 720 millimeters), subtly shift the car's platform. This difference, while small, can noticeably alter downforce.

It's also worth noting that Brazil's bumpy Interlagos circuit had already forced teams to raise their ride heights, meaning cars weren't operating in their ideal range. Switching to inters further raised ride height, likely worsening performance for cars already struggling to stay in their optimum window.

Aside from ride height, tire sidewall stiffness plays an equally crucial role in wet-weather performance. How a tire deforms under cornering forces and with added downforce impacts aerodynamics significantly. Teams carefully tune their setups in wind tunnels, using model tires designed to replicate sidewall deformation precisely. Any change in sidewall stiffness, even slight, can disrupt a car's aero balance, potentially making a stable car in the dry feel much twitchier in the wet.

Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu noted that the shift to intermediate tires tends to upset his cars, a problem they've seen before. Earlier in the season at the Circuit of Spa-Francorchamps, similar issues arose with Haas's car losing rear downforce when switching to rain tires, indicating a recurring struggle with the aerodynamic response to wet-weather conditions. The Japanese motorsport executive and engineer explained that the adjustments required to remove aerodynamic balance clearly indicate a weakness in the rear of the car when using intermediate tires, which has been a new issue this season. He added that, since the car is designed in wind tunnels with tires intended for dry conditions, stability dropped significantly as soon as they first ran on intermediates or wet tires, although he couldn't recall the exact timing of that initial test.

In contrast, Red Bull and Alpine appeared to have a clear advantage over their rivals in wet conditions. While teams are still exploring whether the aerodynamic effects of tire choice played a pivotal role in Brazil, an analysis of lap times hints at a shift in competitive dynamics.

One notable aspect of the Sao Paulo Grand Prix weekend was that it featured both a dry sprint session and a rain-soaked race, giving a rare side-by-side view of how teams perform across vastly different conditions.

Despite the fact that direct qualifying comparisons are somewhat limited, taking into consideration that not every car showed its full capabilities under identical conditions, they still reveal some shifting trends in the running order. In the rain, Alpine and Red Bull seemed to excel, while Ferrari notably fell back, underlining the differing performance profiles between dry and wet conditions.

A more precise measure of each car's performance and the shifts in competitiveness from dry to wet conditions emerges through an analysis of race pace. By examining the quickest laps set by each team's lead car—focusing solely on clean racing laps to exclude distortions from pitstops and race restarts—a distinct trend becomes apparent. Red Bull and Mercedes notably improved their relative pace in the wet, pulling ahead of their competitors, while McLaren and Ferrari struggled to keep up.

Ferrari, in particular, experienced one of the steepest declines, with Alpine and Red Bull consistently proving faster across the race stints, highlighting the Italian team's challenge in adapting to the changing conditions at the Interlagos circuit.

— see video above —

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