Ferrari vs McLaren for F1 world championship dream: the title scenario between tracks and updates
Today at 12:23 PM
The Brazilian Grand Prix at the 4.309-kilometre Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Sao Paulo has almost sealed the reconfirmation of Max Verstappen as Formula 1 world champion, contrasting with a constructors’ championship that remains more open than ever. Red Bull is paying the price for the vast performance gap between its drivers, compounded by an RB20 single-seater which, despite its victory in São Paulo, has yet to consistently prove it can return to being a dominant force. Despite the tight standings, the battle for the World Constructors’ Championship outlines a direct duel between McLaren and Ferrari, to be decided in the final three rounds of the 2024 Formula 1 campaign, which are scheduled to take place in Las Vegas, Lusail, and Abu Dhabi, summarized in the following scenario.
The first act of the battle will be hosted by the 6.2-kilometre Las Vegas Strip Circuit in Nevada, USA, on Saturday, November 23, a racing circuit which is dominated by slow, short, 90-degree corners. The conditions emphasize the importance of mechanical grip linked to the suspension setup, considering that the extremely long straights require low-downforce configurations, bringing back the wings used at the Monza circuit. Ferrari approaches the Nevada street circuit with optimism, aware of having one of the best mechanical packages in terms of traction and handling curbs at low speeds. For McLaren, however, the American circuit proved challenging in 2023, with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri qualifying 16th and 19th, respectively. Since then, the Woking team's car has significantly improved in terms of low-drag efficiency and agility in slow corners.
Las Vegas is the circuit most similar to the Baku City track, where this year McLaren showcased an aggressive and competitive car, though Ferrari emerged overall as the single-seater to beat. However, each track poses unique challenges with its specific track surface and quirks. For example, Nevada nights are characterized by cold temperatures, which, on a low-energy circuit, make tire warming difficult. Ferrari is among the most compliant yet also the slowest cars in heating tires on a single lap, complicating its plans to replicate the pole position secured in Azerbaijan.
In Qatar, unfortunately, Ferrari may have to minimize the damage, according to Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque driver did not hide his thoughts, already recognizing Lusail as the most challenging circuit for the Maranello team in this final part of the 2024 Formula 1 season. The track is rich in medium- and high-speed corners, but above all features long sustained phases through the turns. Ferrari struggles with stability and high-downforce setups, areas where McLaren currently excels. In Qatar, the Woking team will have the chance to deliver a decisive blow in a weekend that, with the Sprint format, offers additional points.
A week later, the season will conclude in Abu Dhabi. The Yas Marina Circuit is a mix of the previous ones, with two long straights, numerous short and low-speed corners, and some longer medium-speed turns. On paper, the track highlights both Ferrari’s and McLaren's strengths and weaknesses, without giving a particular advantage to either team. However, the performance in the qualifying session will be crucial on a track where overtaking is possible but far from straightforward.
Third parties in the title fight will be Red Bull and Max Verstappen, fresh from their dominance at the Interlagos circuit, though aided by the rain. In the Brazilian Grand Prix, the RB20 showed good pace in the Sprint on a dry track in the hands of the world champion, but at the Circuit of the Americas and Mexico City, the same car lacked the race pace to stay with the leaders. Red Bull remains a competitive car with new tires over a single lap, while consistency over long distances depends on whether or not it hits the operating window, a task that still seemed challenging in October. However, the latest developments have partially improved the RB20, enabling it to fight for victory in Baku with Sergio Perez on a track with similar types of corners that mitigated its balance issues. The question now is whether Red Bull can also join the fight at the front in Las Vegas.
As for aerodynamic updates, development can be considered largely complete. In mid-October, Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur hinted at possible updates for the SF-24 car ahead of Qatar, only to state otherwise after the Brazilian Grand Prix. Unlike its rivals, the Italian side did not introduce any evolutionary aerodynamic package in Austin, instead equipping itself with a more flexible front wing, which will be particularly useful in Las Vegas for reducing drag on the straights. McLaren, on the other hand, will arrive in Nevada with a stiffer low-drag rear wing compared to the one used in Azerbaijan, after agreeing with the Federation not to use the mini-DRS system anymore. The team claims the solution was worth less than a tenth of a second, but in Formula 1, as we know very well, even hundredths matter.
The rotation of power units is another variable that could influence the title fight. McLaren's two drivers installed their fourth engine of the season in the Italian Grand Prix weekend at the Monza circuit, while Ferrari's Carlos Sainz took advantage of qualifying struggles to fit his fifth engine in the last race in Brazil. Charles Leclerc appears to be the most at risk, with his fourth engine dating back to the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August. A new internal combustion engine would incur a grid penalty of 10 positions for the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Overall, McLaren can afford to manage its 36-point lead, positioning itself as the favorite for the final victory. Ferrari has every opportunity to score more points than its rival in the coming races, but closing the entire gap will be a real challenge. It is worth noting, however, that Ferrari managed to claw back 39 points in the last triple-header. The priority of the Maranello team will first be to maximize its performance in Las Vegas, narrowing the gap to McLaren in the standings to apply pressure and force errors. In Formula 1, cars take center stage, but with a world championship on the line, psychological resilience can also make the difference.
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