It's Ferrari vs McLaren again: what could break the balance at Marina Bay in Singapore

Yesterday at 04:46 PM

After the first day of action in Singapore, the third consecutive duel between Ferrari and McLaren is taking shape. More than a battle between the Woking and Maranello teams, it’s a challenge between Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris, who alternately led both sessions, separated by a few hundredths. Overnight, a long-distance battle between the two teams is expected, with a focus on the mechanical setup of the cars to gain an edge. The road ahead is more difficult for Red Bull and Mercedes, who are far from the top and plagued by their usual problems.

Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris on equal footing

The first takeaway from Friday is the limited influence of the recent resurfacing of the Asian street circuit. Considering the three-tenths gained with the addition of the fourth DRS zone, the time difference between 2023 and 2024 reflects the normal evolution of the cars from one year to the next. Just like last year, Ferrari starts strong, confirming the great harmony between its drivers and the SF-24 on street circuits.

This year, however, McLaren is Ferrari's number one rival. Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris are particularly close, separated by just a few thousandths, not only at the finish line but also in the best sector times. Charles Leclerc, in particular, finds it easier to set the time in the middle sector, the most technical part of the track, while he needs to work to close the gap to Lando Norris in the final sector, where it's crucial to arrive with the tires not yet overheated. The McLaren driver is very pleased with both the car and his lap, leading to speculation that Charles Leclerc may have held something back.

Heading towards qualifying

At the end of the day, there is a substantial balance between Scuderia Ferrari and McLaren, meaning every detail will make a difference. Crucial will be the fine-tuning of the setup overnight, with the support of those working in the simulators at the factories. In Singapore, they race with a maximum downforce configuration, limiting the teams’ ability to tweak the aerodynamics. However, there are more options available on the mechanical side, not just concerning the suspension. Already in the first free practice, there were numerous radio communications where engineers instructed their drivers on how to use differential and engine brake adjustments to increase the car's rotation through Singapore’s tight corners.

Another key factor will be track evolution, which is expected to improve by at least another second per lap. This is unless thunderstorms occur overnight, washing the track and resetting it to its initial conditions, as well as lowering the temperatures. Special attention must also be paid to the brakes, as the Marina Bay street circuit is one of the most demanding tracks for braking systems. Among those struggling the most is Carlos Sainz, who, after changing the front brakes during the second practice, continued to report abnormal locking issues while braking.

A race not to be underestimated

Qualifying will be particularly important, but overtaking in the race is not impossible, unlike Monaco. Last year, it was shown that overtaking is possible and will be even more so with the new DRS zone, provided there's a significant tire advantage. If those behind can’t make a move, attempting a second stop to overtake again on fresh tires would definitely be an option.

This explains the race pace simulations seen across all three tire compounds available. In the first session, Ferrari tested the hards over long distances, switching to mediums for the afternoon simulations. McLaren followed a different plan, with their drivers alternating between soft and medium compounds, avoiding the hards. In the only direct comparison of the evening, Charles Leclerc stood out on the mediums with a slightly better race pace than Oscar Piastri. However, a direct comparison with Norris was missing, as he was on soft tires at the time.

Red Bull struggles

The world champions are slipping back after being competitive at the Baku City Circuit, at least with Sergio Perez, who was part of the battle for victory. They likely would have been in the mix with Verstappen too, had it not been for the excessive setup change before qualifying. But Friday in Singapore was one to forget, with Verstappen reporting a lack of grip on both the front and rear, especially at low speeds. This required more steering input to rotate the car, resulting in chronic understeer. This created a vicious cycle, with the sliding causing the tires to overheat before the end of the flying lap.

Sergio Perez, on the other hand, struggled with braking. Initially, the Mexican driver complained about the front diving under braking, lifting the rear, which lost load and stability. The problems didn't end there, as Sergio Perez also reported uneven braking, possibly due to a temperature imbalance between the right and left sides. For the world champions, a long night of work awaits. While Ferrari and McLaren are refining an already solid foundation, Milton Keynes needs to consider a complete setup overhaul.

Mercedes lagging behind

The situation for the Silver Arrows is equally critical, with both drivers outside the top 10 in the first session and Russell finishing seventh at the end of the day, while Lewis Hamilton was only 11th. The W15's problem is once again the lack of grip on the rear axle, impacting traction out of the slower corners. This dynamic is both a cause and an effect, as the repeated sliding causes the rear tires to overheat, worsening the issue. Additionally, Hamilton reported strong understeer in the middle of corners, requiring more steering input and further stressing the rear tires, reducing the available grip for traction.

For Mercedes and Red Bull, the challenge is compounded by the strong form of Racing Bulls and Williams, with the latter bringing further updates to Singapore. The gaps between the midfield and the leaders continue to shrink, making it more likely for teams to lose positions when struggling. Saturday’s qualifying promises to be very interesting, with potential surprises from the very first eliminations.

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