Key factors behind Carlos Sainz's pole position: telemetry analysis from Mexico City GP qualifying
Today at 07:41 AM
Qualifying at the 4.304-kilometre Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City is always a delicate and unique session. The sensitivity of these cars to environmental conditions is increasingly pronounced, and when combined with a circuit over 2000 meters above sea level, it creates a delicate mix for those who find the right window at the right time. Sometimes this leads to results that feel like a lottery, like last year's Ferrari front row or the Mercedes one in 2021; other times, merit is rewarded, and in this case, the impression leans strongly towards the latter scenario. After a weekend in Texas where Carlos Sainz showed he was comfortable with the SF24 single-seater in this end-of-season configuration, he arrived in Mexico in dominant form, and qualifying undoubtedly rewarded the best combination of an in-form driver and a car that was clocking fast times in the right parts of the track.
Unlike Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc showed more difficulty in finding the right feeling with the qualifying lap, possibly due to the altered schedule during free practice, despite the fact that he demonstrated a considerably fast race pace, as seen in our long-run analysis. A slightly cleaner lap, just a tenth quicker, would have put the Monegasque in the front row as well, but overall, the Maranello team can be pleased not only with the pole position but also with having two cars in the top four, while both McLaren and Red Bull lost one of their drivers as early as Q1. The lap data from the top four show a series of interesting observations that we will analyze below.
First of all, the numbers show McLaren is more loaded, but Ferrari is the fastest. Starting with the load indicators, we immediately notice that McLaren appears to be the most aerodynamically loaded in terms of downforce index and speed deviation. Red Bull is just slightly less loaded than the Woking car, while Ferrari seems to have adopted a setup that is one step further unloaded. This is also reflected in the speed profiles, with the SF24 being the most performant in terms of acceleration, gaining significantly in the straights, although losing some time in the “snake” section of the middle sector. Generally, on a mixed track, it tends to be easier to gain more time with better performance in slow corners compared to more pronounced disadvantages in high-speed turns, and that's what we see happening with Ferrari. Both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc are extremely fast in corners 2-3 and the subsequent 4-5-6, and from our calculations before entering turn 7, Carlos Sainz has a lead of about four tenths over Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, while Charles Leclerc is just under three tenths behind. However, in the snake section from 7 to 11, Ferrari struggles on the qualifying lap, as we have explained in recent days, with a slightly unloaded setup, softer suspension to better work over the curbs, and the inherent difficulties of the SF24 in maximizing the lateral grip provided by the soft tires.
The entry and traversal of turn 7 by the MCL38 number 4 is truly remarkable, with Lando Norris achieving a minimum speed of 9 kilometers per hour faster than Max Verstappen and even 16 and 17 kilometers per hour faster than Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz. However, the Englishman seems to push a bit beyond the limits and makes a noticeable error at turn 9, where he is forced to lift off the throttle. At turn 9, Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc make the exact same movement with the accelerator, indicating that both drivers have found the limit of their cars, but the Monegasque then loses the rear in a snap of oversteer, costing him about a tenth on the asphalt. In this section, Max Verstappen is incredible, the only one to keep the throttle fully down until turn 10, confirming that a Red Bull (in the hands of its World Champion) delivers its best where a lot of grip and lateral stiffness are required.
The stadium sector rewards Carlos Sainz, and turn 13 decides the starting order. From the exit of the snake section to the inside of the stadium in the final sector, the four cars proceed side by side, with the gaps remaining virtually unchanged even at turn 12. Carlos Sainz maintains a definitive advantage of about three tenths, and it is in the subsequent, very tight turn 13 that the fates of the other three positions in the first two rows are decided. Charles Leclerc struggles through turn 13 right from the braking point, clearly lacking perfect front-end feel, abandoning hopes of a front-row start. Lando Norris enters turn 13 well but makes a mistake on the exit and the transition to turn 14, while Max Verstappen, who has delivered an overall fantastic lap even compared to the car he's driving, manages to carry significant speed into the braking zone and gets back on the throttle slightly earlier, moving from fourth at turn 12 to securing a front-row spot exiting turn 14.
In summary, as we approach the race, the first point to make is that the Mexican track is one that, more than any other this season, requires drivers to find the perfect rhythm to make the car (and the tires) work within the ideal operating window and to repeat that exercise endlessly throughout the race. In this regard, we have seen Ferrari make significant strides recently, both as a car and through its drivers, with Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz often bordering on perfection during races, aided by a car that performs best in race conditions. Alongside them will be Lando Norris and Max Verstappen. The former certainly has many shortcomings at crucial moments but has built his results and current standings on his ability to keep the car consistently within its ideal window lap after lap. Any comments on the Dutchman and his race pace are clearly unnecessary. Thus, what lies ahead is a challenge between titans, where the start will undoubtedly play an important role, with the long straight of over 1 km favoring slipstreaming and the chasing cars. From the exit of turn 1, we will see who can set the pace in clean air and who will be forced to adapt, facing all the associated challenges: remaining behind could mean overheating the brakes and the power unit, while leaving space could lead to losing temperature in the tires, especially in the harder compounds, with the related difficulty of getting back within the optimal window, considering that lateral load is only present in brief sections.
Ferrari has shown a fantastic race pace and is the only team with both cars up front, allowing them to play with strategies; for this reason, they are somewhat favored. However, making a definitive prediction in this situation is particularly complicated. This, however, illustrates how thrilling and competitive the splendid Formula 1 of this season is. In short, all that's left is to enjoy watching the race and savor this wonderful spectacle (as long as it lasts).
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