Mexico qualifying analysis: Ferrari SF-24 takes pole thanks to tires and updates
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Carlos Sainz secures Ferrari's third pole position of the season, a rare feat for a car that performs better in races, certifying the recent progress of the Prancing Horse. Ferrari's competitiveness in Mexico is also evident in Charles Leclerc's self-criticism, as he was three-tenths behind and unsatisfied with his own performance, knowing he had a front-row car. Lando Norris will start third behind Max Verstappen, but for Red Bull, the race promises to be challenging.
Ferrari and the Tire Step
Scuderia Ferrari's pole position is built on the solid foundations of excellent preparation work done at home. The setup brought to the track on Friday proved effective right from the start, with both drivers describing only minor refinements between the first two practice sessions. However, Carlos Sainz had to work hard to secure pole, as the Ferrari has yet to excel in maximizing grip from new tires. It's telling that in the third practice session, switching from used to new tires only gained Sainz half a second, compared to 1.3 seconds for the two McLarens and 1 second for Max Verstappen.
Nonetheless, when discussing the pole position, Carlos Sainz himself noted that he and the Maranello team have improved tire preparation for single-lap performance since Austin. The focus was not on speeding up tire warm-up, which Ferrari rarely struggles with, barring a few exceptions, but rather on balancing the temperatures of the front and rear tires. This time, there doesn't even seem to be any help from the track in Mexico. In Q3, the track temperature dropped to 35°C from 43°C at the start of qualifying, yet Ferrari looked comfortable since Friday, when temperatures ranged between 42 and 47°C, showing just how competitive Ferrari is this weekend.
There is therefore a broader setup range for the Italian side. Carlos Sainz's pole position showcases Ferrari's strong competitiveness, with the positive effects of the September updates still evident. Special mention goes to the front wing introduced in Singapore, which increased aerodynamic load on the front end, invaluable in the thin air of Mexico City. This new wing contributes to extending the setup range, as the added front load allows for softening the rear suspension without compromising balance, providing more mechanical grip in slower corners.
It's no surprise that in Mexico, the SF-24 is again competitive in low-speed corners, which have the most impact on rear tire wear for the race. Ferrari can leverage its strengths, including the ability to attack curbs at low speeds and rear stability under traction. The decision to enhance grip in low-speed sections with a softer mechanical setup is accompanied by higher ride heights, necessary to avoid excessive ground contact. Consequently, the floor generates less aerodynamic load, meaning Ferrari drivers face some disadvantage in the fast corners of the second sector but also experience less drag, gaining two-tenths in the first sector over competitors. So far, this choice has proven successful.
Max Verstappen Saves Red Bull
The world champion grabs a front-row spot that feels almost like a pole position, considering the Dutchman missed much of Friday's practice and had to recover quickly. Max Verstappen reported numerous difficulties, including a lack of rear grip, especially at low speeds. On Friday, Sergio Perez already mentioned issues with ride heights in slow sections, a chronic limitation of the RB20, which struggles with curbs at low speeds. Max Verstappen's labeling of it as a "go-kart" during the Monaco weekend is now well-known.
Red Bull's issues, however, go beyond that, with a general lack of grip on both axles. In Mexico City, cars run with maximum downforce setups, but even last year, the world champions didn't fully impress in this configuration. Max Verstappen is even more pleased with his second-place result, especially as Sergio Perez faced an early elimination due to severe braking issues in the slowest corners. The RB20 remains a difficult car to handle, but the performance gap between the two drivers is now nearly inexplicable.
Norris Norris Raises McLaren's Hopes
The Woking team is paying the price for its initial setup delay, with the starting configuration for the weekend again far from optimal, as seen in Austin. "We made good progress from FP1," commented Oscar Piastri on Friday, even though he struggled with confidence in his MCL38 in the first session, calling the situation "terrible." This scenario doesn't seem tied to the new floor, as the Australian was running with the older specification.
As for Lando Norris, he doesn't notice significant differences with the updates, possibly due to the reduced aerodynamic load at over 2,000 meters in altitude. Nonetheless, McLaren appears to make progress in setup adjustments over the weekend, creating an advantage over Ferrari in the fast corners of the second sector. By the end of qualifying, however, Norris admits he reached his limit before his rivals, hinting that the team may have been overly optimistic about its improvement. Setup limitations don't fully explain Oscar Piastri's Q1 elimination, though, as his mistakes doom him to a challenging race.
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