Did Francesco Bagnaia Really Lose The Title Because Of His Mistakes?
12/03/2024 12:37 PM
The 2024 MotoGP season was nothing short of a rollercoaster, with Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia battling fiercely all the way to the end. When the dust settled, Martin walked away as the champion. But as fans and analysts picked apart the season, one question kept coming up: did Bagnaia lose the title because of his own mistakes?
It's easy to see why people point to moments like Bagnaia's crash in the Sepang sprint race as the turning point. But was that really the defining moment? Or is it just a convenient headline for what was actually a messy, unpredictable, and mistake-filled season for both riders?
Many argue that if Bagnaia hadn't suffered so many DNFs, he likely would have won the championship, but if we remove Bagnaia's errors, it is only fair that we also exclude the errors of Martin, otherwise this hypothetical scenario is trivial.
Looking Closely At The Mistakes
This wasn't just a season where Bagnaia made mistakes. Martin had his fair share of blunders too. In fact, both riders admitted the 2024 championship was defined as much by their errors as their successes. Bagnaia may have crashed more often, but Martin's mistakes were arguably more costly.
Bagnaia had seven crashes this season—three in main races and four in sprints. When added up, those mistakes cost him 73 points to Martin, factoring in both the points he missed out on and the small gains Martin made when Bagnaia dropped out. For example, in the Catalunya sprint, Bagnaia's crash boosted Martin from 5th to 4th, earning him an extra point.
But here's the twist: while Bagnaia made more mistakes, Martin's crashes cost him more points. He fell only four times—twice in main races and twice in sprints—but three of those crashes came while he was leading. That handed Bagnaia maximum points in those races as Bagnaia was always second to him. In total, Martin's errors cost him 82 points, nine more than Bagnaia, which does not even take into account the Spaniard's Misano blunder, as he did not crash.
The tables below give a deeper dive into how the points losses were calculated.
For Bagnaia
For Martin
Not All Mistakes Have The Same Impact
So although it may seem that Martin has in fact lost out more this year from his errors, it is not immediately obvious that this is the case, as the natural assumption is that if a rider has more DNFs, he will have lost out on more points, but it is so important to consider what position each rider was in when they crashed and what position the contenders were relative to eachother when the crash happened. For example, if a rider crashed from 15th position, it is nowhere near as costly as if they crash from first place, so it's not as simple as a “crash is a crash”.
Take Jerez and Sachsenring. Martin was leading both main races when he crashed, handing Bagnaia the extra points for winning while also missing out on the 25 points he would have scored. This amounts to a total points swing of 30, which is a monumental amount in the context of this fight. By comparison, Bagnaia's crashes often came when he wasn't in contention for a win, so the points he missed out on were usually smaller.
When you dig into the numbers, it's clear that the story of the season isn't as simple as "Bagnaia made more mistakes, so he lost." Yes, he had more DNFs. But Martin's errors, fewer as they were, had a massive impact on the championship too.
Why Martin Won
So, did Martin win because of Bagnaia's mistakes? Not really. Sure, Bagnaia's crashes played a role, but that's not the whole picture. It is rather ironic that if we create an errorless championship from the two riders, then Martin actually has a bigger lead!
Martin didn't just win because Bagnaia slipped up—he won because he nailed the other crucial aspects of being a champion. His consistency this season was off the charts, managing to finish second 16 times across all races. He stayed calm under pressure and learned from past struggles with mental focus. That's what made the difference, not just Bagnaia's crashes.
It's also worth highlighting how incredible it is that Martin won the title despite Bagnaia taking 11 wins this season. On paper, that might make Martin's championship seem less impressive, but it actually highlights his strength. This wasn't about piling up race wins—it was about delivering consistently strong performances across 40 gruelling races.
So, no—Bagnaia didn't hand the title to Martin. Martin earned it. He proved that being a champion isn't just about raw speed or winning the most races. It's about resilience, strategy and mental fortitude.
This season will be remembered as one of the most intense and dramatic in recent MotoGP history. And Jorge Martin, the man who battled through it all to come out on top, deserves every bit of credit for his victory. Mistakes may have played a part, but in the end, it was Martin's incredible consistency and growth as a rider that made him a champion.
