Red Bull swapping Lawson for Tsunoda is the worst of both worlds

03/27/2025 07:27 AM

Confirmation of the news that no one in F1 has been waiting for came on Thursday morning, as Red Bull announced that Yuki Tsunoda will replace Liam Lawson in the senior team.

Lawson will drive for Racing Bulls, the team he drove for in 11 races across two part season spells in 2023 and 2024, and returns after twice qualifying last at the Sprint weekend Chinese Grand Prix and 18th at the Australian Grand Prix, while crashing in the race in Australia and finishing 15th on the road in Shanghai.

Tsunoda gets his chance after over four seasons and 89 starts with the Red Bull junior team in the guises of Alpha Tauri, VCARB and Racing Bulls.

Red Bull are renowned for their ruthless handling of their young driver programme. Just ask Pierre Gasly, who in 2019 got half a season and despite obvious improvement in the junior team was never again considered for the senior team.

Even for Red Bull though, two races is a new low.

Not since Yuji Ide’s infamous four race spell for Super Aguri in 2006, where he lost his superlicense when three dreadful flyaway races were followed by the Japanese flipping Christijan Albers at the San Marino Grand Prix, has a stated permanent drive gone so wrong, so quickly.

Lawson will get a chance to go again.

What’s changed?

Much has and will be made of the decision to replace Lawson, a driver Red Bull  believed had the mental fortitude to be teammate to four-time World Champion Max Verstappen with Tsunoda, who not three months ago was not believed to have the mentality to be able to cope with the same role he’s now been thrust into.

Team Principal Christian Horner said of Tsunoda when announcing the switch: “Yuki’s experience will prove highly beneficial in helping to develop the current car.”

When announcing Lawson’s move to Red Bull, Horner said:  “Liam’s performances over the course of his two stints with Racing Bulls have demonstrated that he’s not only capable of delivering strong results but that he’s also a real racer, not afraid to mix it with the best and come out on top.”

Contrast that with this week:

“We have a duty of care to protect and develop Liam and together we see that, after such a difficult start, it makes sense to act quickly so Liam can gain experience as he continues his F1 career with Racing Bulls, an environment and a team he knows very well.”

How times  change.

Red Bull’s muddled thinking

On the face of it, Red Bull have, completely by themselves, got the worst of both worlds.

The reality is worse than that.

When all meaningful metrics – race finishes, points, qualifying points – pointed to Tsunoda being the right choice to replace the shredded Sergio Perez for 2025, Red Bull chose Lawson based on being a “real racer” and other intangibles.

It then gave Lawson a full pre-season and two races in a car that, while tricky, is better than the New Zealander has been able to show at two tracks he’d not driven on before pulling the trigger.

In taking Tsunoda out of the Racing Bulls frying pan and throwing into the Red Bull fire this early on, it is giving Tsunoda almost a full season in a car notorious for being difficult to adapt to, while wasting the chance to ease him in and help the Japanese prepare with pre-season testing.

Tsunoda’s most recent meaningful time in a Red Bull was at the end of season test at Abu Dhabi last year.

He has carried on what was an impressive end to last season in 2025, and would have decent points already this season were it not for poor strategy calls from Racing Bulls at both races.

However, promotion to Red Bull this soon in the season with the media interest that will generate, plus the adaptation process that will inevitably come with joining a new team, in time for his home race will bring a pressure he hasn’t previously been under.

His fiery personality and some expletive-laden radio exchanges are ultimately what led to doubts at Red Bull about his ability to cope with pressure.

It is worth remembering that despite outshining every teammate since Gasly left for Alpine, Tsunoda was Red Bull’s third choice for this seat.

The team brought Daniel Ricciardo back to what was then Alpha Tauri for a shootout to join the senior team in the second half of 2023 before injury hampered his comeback.

A slow start to the 2024 season made Red Bull realise that the Australian – the first choice to replace Perez – was not the same driver as the daring, late-braking and often rabbit-out-of-hat driver that deposed Sebastian Vettel as team leader before leaving for Renault in 2019.

Masking a fundamental issue

The decision to drop Lawson and the circus around Red Bull’s second seat should not detract from the fact that since design genius Adrian Newey left Red Bull almost a year ago, they have gone backwards in competitiveness.

Verstappen won the World Championship with two weekends to spare in 2024, but he won just two of the last 14 races and one of those was at the wet Sao Paulo Grand Prix in Brazil.

The Dutchman has hinted that Red Bull have the fourth fastest car, repeatedly criticised the car’s balance and even hinted that Racing Bulls may have a faster car.

While the car is obviously better than Lawson has shown and should score points at every weekend, Verstappen has more than maximised the car’s potential and taken advantage of quicker rivals falling by the wayside.

Verstappen, the last true success of Red Bull’s once fabled young driver programme, is believed to view the decision to drop Lawson as the wrong call, and the fundamental issue is with the RB21 and not the second driver.

While in part that may be a Formula One driver talking up his own performance, the evidence backs up Verstappen’s view.

If finally giving Tsunoda a chance backfires, it will once and for all expose a team in complete disarray.