2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff predictions
Yesterday at 03:35 AM
The three-month wait is finally over. It‘s officially Daytona 500 race week, with the Great American Race kicking off the 2025 NASCAR season in style.
Points are on the line in Thursday evening‘s twin Duel races, which could pay dividends throughout the regular season. While winning is optimal, points do matter. Such has been the case since the introduction of the Next Gen car in 2022, when Martin Truex Jr., who finished fourth in the regular season standings, missed the Playoffs. Last year, Chris Buescher was six points shy of qualifying for the postseason, despite placing 11th in the regular season standings.
With 26 unpredictable regular season races ahead, and a deep Cup field with plenty of teams on the uprise, it‘s virtually impossible to forecast all 16 Playoff drivers correctly. But that‘s not going to stop me from trying!
Kyle Larson
By most metrics, Larson was the Driver of the Year in 2024. His six victories and 1,700 laps led topped the Cup Series, though he narrowly missed out on both the regular season championship and advancing to the Championship 4. The No. 5 team will win early — maybe Las Vegas in race No. 5? — and secure a spot into the Playoffs.
Christopher Bell
By missing out on the Championship 4 in heartbreaking fashion last year, Bell is determined to get back to Phoenix with a shot at the title for the third time in four seasons. Crew chief Adam Stevens is among the best in the garage, and Bell is capable of winning on any type of race track. Organizational changes aside, Bell is my pick to win the most races in 2025.
Ryan Blaney
The No. 12 team has turned into a perennial powerhouse since Blaney linked up with crew chief Jonathan Hassler. Blaney has won three races in three of the last four seasons, including the 2023 championship. Expect similar numbers this season, if not more wins in that column.
William Byron
Coming off a breakout 2023 season, Byron won three of the opening eight races in 2024 before falling off in the final two thirds of the regular season. His postseason surge advanced the No. 24 team to Phoenix for the second year in a row. Side note: Byron has been the first driver to win multiple races in all three seasons of the Next Gen car. Can he do it for a fourth straight season?
Tyler Reddick
In Reddick‘s second season with 23XI Racing, he flew under the radar while winning the regular season championship in an Herculean effort at Darlington Raceway last September. His no-fear attitude advanced the No. 45 team to Phoenix by making two passes on the final lap at Homestead-Miami Speedway en route to the victory. Though he had a topsy turvy postseason, there are little signs of Reddick slowing down.
Chase Elliott
Despite winning just one race in 2024, Elliott has the series‘ best average finish at 11.7. And if you believe in momentum, the No. 9 team has loads of it by winning the Cook Out Clash in commanding fashion (leading 171 of 200 laps). After two average years, 2025 is setting up as a potential big season for the sport‘s most popular driver.
Joey Logano
After finishing 15th in the regular season standings before winning the 2024 championship, Logano broke the heart of many last season. Don‘t blame the No. 22 team for rising to the pressure, something the three-time champion does repeatedly. Logano ranked second in wins (four, with three in the Playoffs), but his 13 top-10 finishes were his fewest since joining Team Penske in 2013. One could assume that Logano will be more consistent in 2025.
Denny Hamlin
The 54-time Cup winner rides a 25-race winless streak into the 2025 season. Veteran crew chief Chris Gayle joined the No. 11 team over the offseason, with Chris Gabehart being promoted to JGR‘s competition director. There might be an adjustment period, but the No. 11 bunch is too good to miss the postseason.
Chase Briscoe
Briscoe has the opportunity of a lifetime this year, as he was handpicked by Joe Gibbs to be Martin Truex Jr.‘s replacement. He often overachieved in his tenure with Stewart-Haas Racing, winning a pair of races, including last year‘s grueling Southern 500. The pressure has risen this year for Briscoe, but look for him to rise with it.
Ty Gibbs
With Gayle paired with Hamlin, in steps Tyler Allen to be Gibbs‘ crew chief in 2025. This may have been a jackpot promotion internally at JGR, with Allen having an abundant amount of success at all of his stops, be it as an engineer with Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell or winning eight races as a rookie crew chief in the Xfinity Series last season. It‘s not a matter of if Gibbs will win, only a matter of when. The No. 54 team began 2024 on a heater, with those same race tracks starting this year‘s schedule.
Shane van Gisbergen
With five road courses in the regular season, van Gisbergen‘s chances of making the Playoffs as a rookie are extremely high. Granted, the New Zealander was winless in four Cup starts last season on road courses, but he was leading on the final lap at Watkins Glen International before he over drove the inner loop. This is a tad risky because if he doesn‘t score a win, it‘s hard to believe van Gisbergen will have enough points to qualify for the postseason or score a win elsewhere, though he has shown promise at the last two short tracks he‘s competed on.
Ross Chastain
A summer slump in 2024 cost Chastain a plethora of points, putting him below the elimination line come the regular season finale. There is too much talent on the No. 1 team to miss the Playoffs for a second consecutive season.
Alex Bowman
With a great deal of outside noise prior to last year‘s Playoffs, Bowman defined consistency through the first two rounds of the postseason, only for a disqualification at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval to keep him from advancing to the Round of 8. This is a proving year for Bowman, who many believe to be on the hot seat entering 2025.
Bubba Wallace
Reddick proved that 23XI, in just its fourth season, can compete at the front of the pack each week. Wallace knows there is room to improve the No. 23 team. In steps rookie Cup crew chief Charles Denike, who was at McAnally-Hilgemann Racing in the Craftsman Truck Series, guiding Christian Eckes to four wins and the regular season championship last year. Hamlin, co-owner of 23XI, stated at Bowman Gray Stadium that he believes Denike will be a "game changer" for the organization.
Kyle Busch
For the first time in Busch‘s illustrious 20-year, full-time career, he failed to win a race last season. It‘s paramount that the No. 8 team comes out of the gate strong, so that Busch isn‘t pressing late in the regular season yet again. Richard Childress Racing has had change aplenty behind the scenes, with the end goal of being more competitive. My pick is Busch wins again this year.
Chris Buescher
RFK Racing was a surprise last season. Brad Keselowski won early at Darlington Raceway, and Buescher missed out on a number of victories (that same Darlington race and one week earlier at Kansas Speedway stand out like a sore thumb). But the sheer speed of RFK lacked in the second half of the season. It feels like a necessity to put at least one RFK in the postseason and Buescher is the choice, having scored more wins and top 10 finishes in the three years that these drivers have been teammates.
Justin miss the cut: Brad Keselowski, Austin Cindric, Carson Hocevar, Michael McDowell
Eliminated in Round of 16: Ty Gibbs, Shane van Gisbergen, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain
Eliminated in Round of 12: Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher
Eliminated in Round of 8: William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin
Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott
Champion: Christopher Bell
