Is Nissan really in serious trouble?

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Japanese car maker Nissan announced last month it's operating in 'Emergency Mode' after posting dramatic sales declines in key markets, resulting in huge financial losses and – ultimately – job cuts.

How accurate are the claims made by an unnamed senior official close to the car maker – which built its first vehicle more than 100 years ago in 1914 – suggesting Nissan is only around 12 months away from collapse?

That time frame may be pointing towards a 2026 bond maturity for the car maker, which will see the company owe $US5.6 billion ($8.59 billion)– its largest ever debt, according to Bloomberg.

That's in addition to $US1.6 billion ($AU2.45 billion) in 2025, although the car maker told Bloomberg it has sufficient funds to fulfil its upcoming payments.

In 1999, when the Renault-Nissan Alliance was created, the Japanese car maker was also saddled with debt before it cut 21,000 workers globally – 14 per cent of its workforce – returning to contribute around half of Renault's annual net profit by the very next year.

Carlos Ghosn – who ran both Renault and Nissan at the time and was credited with masterminding the turnaround – fled Japan in 2018 after facing arrest for allegedly misusing company funds.

In 2024, Nissan has posted lower than expected sales in the world's two largest car markets – China and the United States – and while has seen profit nosedive by a staggering 304 per cent, cut 9,000 jobs and reduced its ownership stake in Mitsubishi, it's not all doom and gloom.

In the US, the locally-built Nissan Rogue (known in Australia as the Nissan X-Trail) sits inside the country's top ten best sellers – in ninth – with almost 189,156 sold by the end of September.

The latest Q3 (July-August-September) figures show Nissan US sales were down 9.4 per cent, yet rival Toyota posted an 8.0 per cent fall over the same time frame, Kia a 7.0 per cent drop with General Motors (GM) 1.9 per cent lower.

Over the same period, Ford posted a 0.7 per cent gain – while Stellantis, owner of a house of brands including Jeep, Chrysler and Ram Trucks – recorded a significant 20 per cent drop.

Nissan's US year-on-year decline is a meagre 1.0 per cent in a market that's seen only a 0.7 per cent increase to the end of September.

This came as Nissan's US boss said the car maker didn't have the right model line to capitalise on the growth of hybrid sales, with its 'e-Power' hybrids offered elsewhere – including Australia – not due in the US until 2026.

Nissan's biggest sales drop has been in China, where its 14.3 per cent fall year-on-year has come as Japanese brands have been hit hardest.

Both the US and Europe are tied up in tariff debates, which may also further reactions from China – and while that's not a positive sign for sales in China, Nissan has five manufacturing plants as well as research and design centres in the US for a more promising future there.

According to Bloomberg, Japan's car makers in particular have lost the most sales volume to Chinese brands in China over the past five years, declining 8.8 per cent in market share overall.

That's a significant number given around 30 million new vehicles are sold annually in China.

It's also a trend occurring in other countries, as China's automotive export industry gains a foothold around the world – including steady growth in Australia – at the expense of existing brands.

Nissan was the tenth best-selling brand in China, where it has a joint-venture with Dongfeng, at the end of September 2024, with Toyota and Honda the only other Japanese car makers making the list, in third and fourth positions respectively.

According to CarNewsChina.com, Nissan's decline in the first nine months of the year was the biggest at 26.1 per cent, Honda's the next worst at 20.1 per cent while Toyota managed only a 4.1 per cent fall.

Yet the Nissan Sylphy small car was the country's fourth-best selling model over that time – behind the Tesla Model Y, and BYD's Qin Plus sedan and Song Plus SUV – despite a sales fall of 22.1 per cent itself.

The Sylphy's market share appears low at 1.6 per cent, yet the Model Y leads with only a 2.1 per cent share – the sales figures 320,019 for the Tesla and 257,380 for the Nissan.

Over in Europe, Nissan's year-on-year figures recorded 0.8 per cent growth, with the ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association) reporting a 6.1 per cent decline to the end of December.

Even with a stronger October, the market in Europe has remained relatively flat with 0.7 per cent growth to the end of October.

These figures include the United Kingdom (UK) where Nissan is the only car maker with two cars in the top ten.

As of the end of October, the Nissan Qashqai and Nissan Juke SUVs are third and fourth – the Qashqai a consistent top-three runner having been the UK's most popular vehicle in 2022.

The UK's SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) reported a sales increase of 15.8 per cent for Nissan at the end of October – the car maker sitting in eighth place (86,353 sales) less than 500 behind Toyota.

Australian sales are up a similar 16.2 per cent year-on-year to the end of October, with Nissan sitting in ninth place among more than 60 brands (and counting) with record sales for the Nissan Patrol off-roader.

Sales have increased on five of the eight Nissan nameplates in Australian showrooms, with the recently facelifted 2025 Nissan Juke posting the biggest gain year-to-date of 58.5 per cent.

Nissan globally says it will still deliver the 27 electrified models, 19 of them battery-electric, while also expanding its e-Power hybrid tech to smaller models announced under 'The Arc' plan, albeit with some delays.

The Arc was announced in March 2024 in place of the previous 'Nissan Next' strategy, where Makoto Uchida – Nissan President and CEO who voluntarily cut his pay in half last month – was frank.

"As an industry we need to change the way we plan, develop, manufacture and sell cars – there's no doubt that disruption is the new normal in our industry," Uchida said in delivering the plan.

"Although we made progress during the Nissan Next [plan], the transformation was not enough."

In Australia, Nissan has already publicly confirmed next-generation core models on the way here, with a new Nissan Navara ute and Nissan Leaf electric hatch in showrooms by early 2027.

Australia will also be the first country to receive the right-hand-drive version of the new-generation Y63 Patrol when it hits showrooms in late 2026.

While not officially confirmed, it looks set to offer the locally-engineered Patrol Warrior and Navara Warrior hero models into the next generation.

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