Carlos Sainz could have beaten Oscar Piastri and finished P2 in Austria: analysis of Bernie Collins

07/03/2024 09:01 AM

The second position was possible for Carlos Sainz in the 2024 Formula 1 Austrian Grand Prix: this is the view of Bernie Collins, who knows a thing or two about race strategies. The former Aston Martin strategy chief analyzes the Spanish driver’s Grand Prix in relation to his competitors.

For most drivers, the race in Spielberg was a two-stop affair, alternating between medium and hard tires. Tire degradation was high, so tire management was important. In the first part of the race, the order of drivers was as follows: Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, George Russell, Carlos Sainz, Lewis Hamilton, and Oscar Piastri.

Lewis Hamilton stopped on lap 21, Carlos Sainz on the following lap to attempt an undercut. Oscar Piastri had no reason to stop, so he continued until Verstappen made his pit stop, and the Australian was temporarily the race leader.

As Bernie Collins explains, Oscar Piastri only stopped on lap 25 to avoid defending against the Dutchman, so he had a three-lap advantage in terms of tire life over Carlos Sainz.

In the second stint, the order among the top six remained unchanged. Everyone was on hard tires, except Russell on medium compound. Russell stopped on lap 46 to switch to hards, and Carlos Sainz waited for the next lap.

Oscar Piastri managed to overtake Hamilton on lap 48 and extended his stint again until lap 51, which allowed him to have fresher tires for four more laps than Carlos Sainz. This, Bernie Collins notes, equates to about a 0.4-second advantage per lap just from degradation. Oscar Piastri was therefore faster, enough to chase Lewis Hamilton.

In the third stint, Oscar Sainz was forced to manage his tires early, which made him slower than the top five. In particular, Bernie Collins notes, this management is visible in turns 7, 8, 9, and 10.

If the Spaniard had delayed his second pit stop, each lap he would have had to manage the tires less (fresher tires), so he would have gotten closer to the young McLaren driver. Consequently, Sainz would have improved his lap time and could have defended to maintain his second position.

Bernie Collins explains how Ferrari could have adopted a strategy similar to Charles Leclerc‘s in Barcelona. On that occasion, the Monegasque extended the first two stints to have better tires at the end and challenge George Russell.

Source: f1ingenerale

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