Ferrari has 3.3% chance to win WCC, Charles Leclerc 2.7% chance to win F1 Drivers' title

10/15/2024 05:22 PM

Formula 1 is back in action after an unusual one-month break. This weekend the race takes place in the United States Grand Prix at the 5.513-kilometre Circuit of The Americas in Austin, where the first of the four Sprint races in the final part of the 2024 Formula 1 season is also scheduled. A crucial weekend for the title fight, given the opportunity to score more points. It's a great opportunity for McLaren to extend their lead in the Constructors’ Championship and for Lando Norris to attempt a challenge against Max Verstappen for the world title.

Important responses are also expected from Ferrari, as they need strong performances to finish the season on a high note, see if the new updates will bear fruit, and try to secure second place in the Constructors’ standings. The United States GP will see many teams bring aerodynamic updates, which will also be tested in Mexico and Brazil, given the triple-header of races. Following this, from November 24, the final rounds will be held in Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi to close the championship. It's possible that some teams will introduce new low-drag aerodynamic components for the Las Vegas race, though most are expected to use the wing specifications already employed in Monza and Baku. It's uncertain whether teams might test new elements during free practice in Qatar in preparation for 2025.

“It's a natural time of the year when all teams will bring something to Austin,” Christian Horner told RacingNews365. “Ferrari has something significant. I think Mercedes, McLaren, they will all bring something.” Red Bull will be the team under special scrutiny this weekend to see if the issues from previous races have truly been resolved, aiming to respond to McLaren’s performance starting in Austin. Many questions remain, but the wait is almost over, and only the track can provide the answers.

Of course, Max Verstappen is still the favourite to win the 2024 F1 world championship – but Lando Norris has more than 1/3 chance to win his first F1 title. According to Oddschecker, there is also a slim chance for Ferrari and Charles Leclerc to get involved in the battle for the F1 titles.

Probability (Oddschecker)
VER 57.8%
NOR 37.8%
LEC 2.7%

WCC:
McL 88.6%
RBR 7.9%
Ferrari 3.3%

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