Mexico GP strategy analysis: Carlos Sainz unstoppable, but thanks also to Max Verstappen

Today at 04:22 PM

The Mexico GP was anything but lacking in excitement. Numerous incidents, several penalties, and above all, a remarkable show of strength from Ferrari, particularly from Carlos Sainz, who after losing position to Max Verstappen at the start, reclaimed it with determination on lap nine, maintaining the lead until his 71st lap.

Strategy Recap
What impact did the strategies have on the final outcome of the race? Before discovering that, let’s do a quick recap. Once again, the race unfolded as expected. Most drivers avoided using the Soft tires, with only those aiming for the fastest lap at the end relying on the C5.

Given the tire degradation, the most common strategy was a single stop from Medium C4 to Hard C3. This approach was chosen by the drivers who finished in the Top 11, including winner Sainz, Norris, Hamilton, Russell, Verstappen, Magnussen, Piastri, Hulkenberg, Gasly, and Stroll. The exception was Leclerc, who would have finished on this strategy if he hadn't opted to fit the Soft C5 for the final lap to achieve the fastest lap in 1:18.336.

On a Hard-Medium strategy, we had Colapinto, Ocon, Bottas, and Zhou. Lawson went for Hard-Medium-Soft, needing to pit a few laps from the end to repair a damaged front wing after a collision with Franco Colapinto (the Williams driver was later penalized 10 seconds for this). Meanwhile, Perez finished his troubled home GP with a three-stop strategy of Hard-Medium-Medium-Soft, pitting at the end of the race in an attempt to snatch an additional point from Leclerc. However, he failed; the damage suffered by the Mexican following his collision with Lawson around lap 18 was too significant. Sergio stopped nearly a second behind Charles’s time: 1:19.209 (his race was further affected by the initial 5-second penalty for being mispositioned on the starting grid).

Now, diving into the crucial action, there are two themes we will analyze. While it would be interesting to discuss the penalties given to Max Verstappen, we want to focus more on the factors that influenced Sainz’s victory and how Norris prevented Leclerc from achieving what could have been Ferrari’s second consecutive double podium.

Carlos Sainz Should Thank Verstappen for His Victory
If Carlos has one merit, it's that he managed to take the lead in the GP after a clean and fierce battle with Max Verstappen during the ninth lap, just after the Safety Car returned to the pits (called out due to the incident involving Albon and Tsunoda). After that, Carlos Sainz was able to set his pace, taking advantage of the duel between Max and Lando, which also allowed Leclerc to move up from P4 to P2. The two Ferraris had the best pace on Medium tires, as evidenced when Verstappen pitted on lap 27, with Sainz building a 6-second lead over Leclerc and 12.5 seconds over Norris.

However, Lando, unable to overtake the Dutchman until that point, could not show his true pace, which was a great stroke of luck for the Spaniard. Once Max served his 20-second penalty (a sum of penalties for how he defended against Norris’s attacks), Lando had clear air and could finally demonstrate his potential. On the Hard tires, the McLaren was undoubtedly the fastest car, enabling the number 4 car to not only catch and pass Leclerc but also finish in second place just 4.7 seconds behind Sainz. The British driver recovered 8 seconds on that tire strategy, while Carlos was not always managing his pace.

Charles Leclerc Came Close This Time
Charles’s error could have cost the team dearly. That off-track moment that allowed Norris to take P2 effortlessly was perhaps the only blemish of the race. What led to it? Charles Leclerc was undoubtedly frustrated and demoralized. Sainz showed he had more pace throughout the weekend. Charles attempted to keep up with the Spaniard in the first and second stints but was unable to, constantly being reminded by the team about managing his operating temperatures. When Norris decided to take things seriously in the second stint, Leclerc realized it would be very difficult to resist him.

With Charles Leclerc constantly balancing between pushing and managing temperatures, McLaren was closing in, and when the lapped drivers he encountered also started blocking him, the Monegasque lost his composure. The mistake made in the last corner of lap 62 fortunately only led to an easy pass by Norris, but it could have ended much worse. It was close to Charles crashing into the wall and ruining the weekend for the Maranello team. Charles Leclerc’s strength lies in being highly self-critical, so he will know exactly what to avoid in the future.

In his defense, we can say that the lapped drivers behaved in a manner that was truly difficult to decipher. They blocked the Ferrari cars and then quickly let others through. They certainly didn’t do it on purpose, but this at least makes Charles Leclerc’s state of mind understandable.

In terms of strategy, the race was quite straightforward. The Mexican GP was mainly about managing tires, temperatures, and fuel. Carlos Sainz was the best at it, but if Lando Norris had managed to overtake Max Verstappen in the early stages of the race, we might have witnessed a different finish.

Special mention goes to Oscar Piastri, who managed to score points starting from the back with a Medium-Hard strategy, to the Haas team for achieving another double points finish, and to Pierre Gasly, who returned the Alpine to the top 10 after four races without points.

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