Tesla shares company-compiled analyst consensus for Q4 2024 deliveries

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has shared its latest company-compiled delivery consensus from sell-side analysts. Based on the consensus, analysts are not expecting Tesla to beat its annual delivery figures from 2023.

The consensus: 

  • As per Tesla's company-compiled consensus, analysts are expecting the electric vehicle maker to post 506,763 vehicle deliveries for Q4 2024.
  • Analysts expect Tesla to report 476,398 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries, as well as 31,755 deliveries of all other models.
  • With these results, Tesla's company-compiled consensus expects a global total of 1,801,709 vehicle deliveries for 2024.

Tesla's sources:

  • The analyst consensus for Tesla's Q4 2024 vehicle delivery results was provided by the following firms:
  • Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, New Street Research, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Well Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair

Tesla's Q4 consensus vs 2023’s deliveries:

  • For comparison, Tesla reported a total of 484,507 vehicle deliveries for Q4 2023.
  • These were comprised of 461,538 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 22,969 units of Tesla's other models. 
  • With these results, Tesla delivered a total of 1,808,581 vehicles globally in Full Year 2023

Tesla's FY 2024 deliveries in context:

  • For Tesla to match its 2023 delivery numbers, the company would have to deliver about 515,000 vehicles this fourth quarter.
  • This, however, would require Tesla to deliver the most vehicles it has ever delivered in a quarter.
  • Even if Tesla does not meet its 2023 figures this year, the company's overall performance is not as grim as what skeptics may believe. 
  • Tesla's business, after all, is no longer just focused on its automotive division. Tesla Energy is growing rapidly, and the company's work on its FSD system could pave the way for a software licensing business in the long run.

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