When is the best time to refuel for Christmas?

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Holiday periods can often mean a hike in fuel prices as petrol stations deal with increased traffic and differing price cycles.

We’ve investigated when the cheapest time to refuel is over the Christmas break and here’s what we’ve found.

RELATED: Six cheap fuel tips you don't already know about

The general consensus is that fuel prices will peak around Christmas Day. But, this may not be the case depending on where you live.

We spoke to fuel pricing experts to ensure that you get the best deal on petrol this festive season and ensure you’re not paying more than you have to.

How are petrol prices determined?

According to Mark McKenzie from the Australasian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association (ACAPMA), major cities in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland run on a six-week pricing cycle. This means that within those six weeks, prices see a steep increase to a peak and then steadily decrease to a low.

Major cities in Western Australia, on the other hand, run on a weekly cycle, meaning that there is a certain day when it is cheapest.

South Australia, on the other hand, doesn’t follow a set cycle. Instead, they have a peak and then drop very quickly before steadily rising again.

Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory do not have petrol price cycles.

Do petrol prices go up over Christmas?

Mark McKenzie says that only a handful of outlier petrol stations in areas that follow petrol cycles will hike their prices over Christmas.

“The ACCC looked into [holiday price hikes] around six years ago. They looked into all of the holiday periods year-round, and they found that, on average, one-third of the time the prices go up on a public holiday, one-third of the time they go down, and one-third of the time they stay the same,” says McKenzie.

“They determined that the petrol cycle does not change just because of a public holiday.

“Having said that, it doesn’t mean that there won’t be a few petrol stations playing games during public holiday periods.”

It can be a bit of a gamble to fill up right at Christmas time. But if you are in an area that follows pricing cycles, then it may be worth shopping around during the public holidays.

When is the cheapest time to refuel over Christmas?

Because each Australian state has different pricing cycles, Mark McKenzie ran us through a state-by-state basis of when the cheapest time to refuel is.

It’s worth noting that the further you get from the major cities, the less likely you’ll see these trends occur, and the more independent pricing will be applied.

“Let’s just say Sydney is at the bottom of the petrol price cycle. You need to look at what the fuel sites are doing regarding pricing in the large cities. Regional areas don’t discount, so when fuel prices are down near the bottom in the capital city, the regional prices are more expensive, and vice versa,” says McKenzie.

It’s an excellent idea to check fuel-pricing apps to see what the trends are before heading out. Petrol stations are government-regulated to report their fuel costs in every state and territory, except Victoria.

Sydney, New South Wales

“Sydney just came off a price peak on the second of December and it’s been slowly coming down. The price will keep falling over Christmas and New Year, so it doesn’t make sense to fill up now,” says McKenzie.

Since the price peaked at the beginning of this month, you won’t be paying top dollar during Christmas and New Year.

With that considered, it may be best to fill up just before the Christmas public holiday if you are going away, as there is still a chance petrol stations may hike the price.

Melbourne, Victoria

“Melbourne is starting to rise in price. We expect to see a peak probably towards the end of this week, but then they’ll start to fall as we go through the Christmas period into the New Year,” says McKenzie.

Considering the price cycle, you shouldn’t rush out and fill up now. Instead, wait for the prices to drop and try to fill up after Christmas if you can help it.

Brisbane, Queensland

“Brisbane is experiencing a similar cycle to Melbourne. These prices are currently rising and will peak soon. But, they’ll start to fall around Christmas and New Year,” says McKenzie.

Following the same advice for Melbourne residents, you should try to hold off until later in December or early January to be in the cheapest time to refuel.

Adelaide, South Australia

“Adelaide is a little different to all the other cycles. At the moment, Adelaide is down near the bottom of the petrol cycle, so we would expect it to probably rise in the next couple of days,” says McKenzie.

“But it rises very quickly, unlike the other cycles, so what you would expect here is probably to see a rise in the petrol price towards Christmas, but it will fall off pretty quickly as people start travelling between Christmas and New Year.”

Again, if you can hold off until after New Year, you will reap the most savings. But if you need to fill up, you should do so before Christmas.

Perth, Western Australia

“Perth goes up and down each week. The cheapest time is Tuesday, and then it rises the following day. It falls over the week and then drops down to the lowest point on Tuesday. It’s what we call ‘super Tuesday’,” says McKenzie.

Darwin, Northern Territory

“Darwin does not follow a price cycle. We saw a jump of nearly 20 cents at the start of the month, so we would expect to see that continue into the new year,” said McKenzie

If you are looking to refuel in Darwin, you may have to shop around independent stations for a deal.

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

Canberra is the same as Darwin in that it does not follow a price cycle. It also saw a price jump at the start of the month, which Mark McKenzie says will likely carry into the new year.

If you can hold off on filling up, it will be cheapest to wait until after New Year’s Day to head to a petrol station.

Hobart, Tasmania

Similar to both Canberra and Darwin, Hobart does not follow a pricing cycle and is dependent on the oil price two weeks prior.

If you are looking to fill up in Tasmania, then it might be worth keeping an eye on the oil trade price and planning two to three weeks in advance.

How do I get cheaper fuel during the Christmas break?

The best way to get the cheapest fuel is to download a fuel-pricing app on the app store. Then, you can shop around and plan your trips based on where the cheapest fuel is.

To find out more about how to get the cheapest fuel, check out our full article here.

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