Is Lewis Hamilton "finished"? The key data that silences the skeptics amid performance indices
Yesterday at 09:27 AM
Lewis Hamilton’s arrival at Scuderia Ferrari is certainly the event that defines the pre-season of Formula 1. It is an occurrence that both Liberty Media and the International Federation are winking at, aware of the impact of this pairing and the visibility it will bring to the most important category of motorsport. However, even among the incurable optimists, there is a doubt that no one dares to voice. So, we will voice it: is the seven-time Formula 1 world champion on the downward slope of his remarkable career full of achievements?
Will he still be able to return to being the winning driver he was until the 2021 season, at forty years old? Is the partnership with Ferrari an extreme attempt to find motivation, now tucked away due to the mediocrity of Mercedes’ recent technical projects? In the last three years, all numerical indicators have favored his Mercedes teammate. George Russell, starting from the 2022 Formula 1 championship, has secured more wins, more pole positions, and in two out of three seasons, he has finished ahead of the seven-time world champion in the driver standings.
A superficial observer, based on these facts, could only declare the following: Lewis Hamilton is now a “finished” driver who sought a “retirement” in Maranello to complete his extraordinary career. After all, as Sebastian Vettel said in a famous interview, deep down, everyone is a fan of Ferrari. A marketing operation sure to succeed, but with many questions about the possibility of seeing the “prime” version of the British driver again. To go beyond the statistical data, we conducted an analysis.
The most reliable performance indices are two: lap speed and race pace. As for Saturday, the partial score of 19 to 5 against George Russell leaves little room for excuses. But for race pace, the situation is very different. Discounting three rounds in which the two Silver Arrows didn't make it to the checkered flag, it is evident that Lewis Hamilton’ pace was superior to George Russell's 12 times out of 21. This is a very surprising fact, demonstrating Lewis Hamilton's ability to “hammer” over the 300 kilometer distance as in the best phases of his astonishing career.
This is a data point that holds a higher qualitative value than expected because the British driver almost always started behind his fellow countryman and, in many circumstances, got entangled in midfield battles that were very detrimental to his race strategy. Just think of the Las Vegas Grand Prix, where the new Ferrari driver was clearly the fastest, but his grid position did not allow him to go beyond second place, right behind his younger teammate. There is an interesting fact here, thinking of the Prancing Horse in this regard.
By some strange twist of fate, considering the 2024 Formula 1 season campaign for Ferrari, there is a common destiny. Both Lewis Hamilton and the Maranello team's future car will aim to improve performance on the single lap. Last season, Charles Leclerc, one of the best qualifiers in the history of the top category, only secured three pole positions. This despite the SF-24 being, overall, a very good car.
We are talking about a clear result stemming from the precise intent of the technicians and engineers at Maranello, who, during the design phase, decided to create a Formula 1 car more focused on performance during the race, with an eye on the mere management of tires over the 300 kilometer distance. One of the issues that has always plagued Italian cars in recent years. In this regard, we can say that this result has largely been achieved by the Maranello team, despite the “troubled” development plan that effectively affected a potentially winning season.
However, to be more specific, in qualifying, tire preparation was often complex, compromising the grid position of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz. The Singapore Grand Prix weekend at the Marina Bay Street Circuit is enlightening in this sense. For this reason, the Ferrari project 677 was produced to put on track a car capable of delivering maximum performance even on a single lap, helping Lewis Hamilton regain the confidence he lost in the last three years, during which he secured only one pole position at the 2023 Hungarian Grand Prix. As for the races, as mentioned, there will be no performance issues.
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